| MRSH |
Report |
Underlying (organic) revenue growth |
MISS |
pred ~3.3% vs. cons 3.6% |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.94 vs. cons $2.90 |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Report |
Adjusted operating margin |
IN-LINE |
pred ~29.2% vs. cons 29.3% |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Guide |
FY2026 organic revenue growth (full-year framing) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~4% 'similar to 2025' vs. cons ~3.6% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| MRSH |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted margin expansion (year 19 streak) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+30-50bps expansion (~29.6% vs. cons ~29.4%) (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Guide |
Guy Carpenter organic (Q2) |
LOWER |
guide ~1-2% vs. cons ~3% (Q2/2H 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Guide |
FY2026 capital deployment / buyback |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5B total vs. cons ~$5B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MRSH |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock ran ~+12% into the print (well ahead of a flattish tape), setting a high bar. A modest EPS beat is offset by organic decelerating below the ~3.6% cons (Guy Carpenter lapping +5% with 15-20% cat pricing declines, fiduciary income falling to ~$80M). The out-period math is negative: soft organic + cautious full-year tone drive FY revenue/EPS estimate trims, so the initial negative reaction extends rather than reverses as sell-side shaves organic assumptions. |
MEDIUM |