{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying (organic) revenue growth",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~3.3% vs. cons 3.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.94 vs. cons $2.90",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~29.2% vs. cons 29.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 organic revenue growth (full-year framing)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4% 'similar to 2025' vs. cons ~3.6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted margin expansion (year 19 streak)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+30-50bps expansion (~29.6% vs. cons ~29.4%) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Guy Carpenter organic (Q2)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~1-2% vs. cons ~3% (Q2/2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capital deployment / buyback",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5B total vs. cons ~$5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran ~+12% into the print (well ahead of a flattish tape), setting a high bar. A modest EPS beat is offset by organic decelerating below the ~3.6% cons (Guy Carpenter lapping +5% with 15-20% cat pricing declines, fiduciary income falling to ~$80M). The out-period math is negative: soft organic + cautious full-year tone drive FY revenue/EPS estimate trims, so the initial negative reaction extends rather than reverses as sell-side shaves organic assumptions.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}