MRSH Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRSH Report Consolidated underlying revenue growth BEAT pred ~3.7% vs. cons 3.6% MEDIUM
MRSH Report Risk & Insurance underlying revenue growth BEAT pred ~3.2% vs. cons 3.1% MEDIUM
MRSH Report Adjusted operating margin IN-LINE pred ~29.4% vs. cons 29.26% MEDIUM
MRSH Guide Underlying revenue growth outlook BETTER guide ~4.0% vs. cons 3.8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRSH Guide Adjusted operating margin expansion BETTER guide ~20 bps vs. cons 15 bps (FY2026) LOW
MRSH Guide Fiduciary interest income LOWER guide ~$75M vs. cons $78M (2026Q3) MEDIUM
MRSH Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
MRSH Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) The initial relief from pred ~3.7% underlying growth versus 3.6% consensus should fade as guide ~$75M of Q3 fiduciary interest income versus $78M consensus and continued Guy Carpenter pricing pressure limit out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM