| MSCI |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.00 vs. cons $4.89 |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Report |
Total Revenue (ABF-driven) |
BEAT |
pred ~$868M vs. cons $856M |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Report |
Index organic subscription run-rate growth (durability signal) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~10.5% vs. cons ~10% |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Guide |
FY26 Adj. EBITDA expense (reinvestment framing) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1,305-1,335M, trending top half vs. cons ~$1,320M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Guide |
FY26 Free cash flow |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1,470-1,530M vs. cons ~$1,500M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Guide |
Q2 Analytics revenue growth (pre-warned decel) |
LOWER |
guide ~5% vs. cons ~7% (Q2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Guide |
ABF revenue framework/AUM upside from record Q2 ETF flows |
BETTER |
period-avg AUM up ~30% YoY (~$2.4T vs. ~$1.87T year-ago), ABF run-rate ~$880M+ vs. ~$700M (FY26 H2) |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.3% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MSCI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.8% (FADE) |
Expected clean beat is ABF/market-driven (lower quality) with a compressing fee rate (2.35bps) and a pre-warned Analytics decel to ~5%; the durability metrics (net-new sales, seasonally weak Q2 retention, Sustainability softness) leave little for out-period upward revisions. With the stock up ~16% off April lows, near highs, and elevated targets (~$690-760) vs. ~$625, the initial ABF-fueled pop partially gives back as estimates don't re-rate the market-linked beat into out-years. |
LOW |