{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.00 vs. cons $4.89",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (ABF-driven)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$868M vs. cons $856M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Index organic subscription run-rate growth (durability signal)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~10.5% vs. cons ~10%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adj. EBITDA expense (reinvestment framing)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,305-1,335M, trending top half vs. cons ~$1,320M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Free cash flow",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,470-1,530M vs. cons ~$1,500M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Analytics revenue growth (pre-warned decel)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~5% vs. cons ~7% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "ABF revenue framework/AUM upside from record Q2 ETF flows",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "period-avg AUM up ~30% YoY (~$2.4T vs. ~$1.87T year-ago), ABF run-rate ~$880M+ vs. ~$700M (FY26 H2)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.3,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Expected clean beat is ABF/market-driven (lower quality) with a compressing fee rate (2.35bps) and a pre-warned Analytics decel to ~5%; the durability metrics (net-new sales, seasonally weak Q2 retention, Sustainability softness) leave little for out-period upward revisions. With the stock up ~16% off April lows, near highs, and elevated targets (~$690-760) vs. ~$625, the initial ABF-fueled pop partially gives back as estimates don't re-rate the market-linked beat into out-years.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}