MSCI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MSCI Report Q2 2026 operating revenue BEAT pred ~$878M vs. cons $865M MEDIUM
MSCI Report Q2 2026 adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$5.10 vs. cons $4.91 MEDIUM
MSCI Report Q2 2026 organic recurring subscription run-rate growth IN-LINE pred ~8.0% vs. cons 8.0% MEDIUM
MSCI Guide Full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance midpoint LOWER guide ~$1.50B vs. cons $1.51B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MSCI Guide Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA expense guidance midpoint UNCHANGED guide ~$1.32B vs. cons $1.32B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MSCI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.8% MEDIUM
MSCI Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Predicted +3.6% five-day residual vs. +2.8% day-1 residual: strong asset-based-fee revenue and elevated quarter-end linked AUM should lift Q3 and FY2026 estimates after the initial beat, while in-line subscription growth and unchanged expense guidance limit the magnitude. MEDIUM