MSCI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MSCI Report ABF Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$250M vs. cons $236.3M HIGH
MSCI Report Net New Recurring Sub Sales (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$51M vs. cons $52.7M MEDIUM
MSCI Report Total Run Rate (Q2 2026 EOD) BEAT pred ~$3,520M vs. cons $3,481.5M MEDIUM
MSCI Guide FCF FY2026 (formal range) UNKNOWN guide ~$1,470-$1,530M vs. cons UNKNOWN LOW
MSCI Guide Adj EBITDA Expense FY2026 UNCHANGED guide ~$1,305-$1,335M maintained vs. implied midpoint ~$1,320M HIGH
MSCI Guide ABF/Subscription tone (qualitative) BETTER Strong momentum, trending top half — better than feared HIGH
MSCI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
MSCI Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FADE) FADE — subscription miss pulls estimates lower on out-period math; sell-side trims subscription run rate MEDIUM