NDAQ Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NDAQ Report Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$1.00 vs. cons ~$0.98 MEDIUM
NDAQ Report Net revenue BEAT pred ~$1.47B vs. cons ~$1.45B MEDIUM
NDAQ Report Total ARR IN-LINE pred ~$3.28B (+12%) vs. cons ~$3.25B LOW
NDAQ Guide FY2026 non-GAAP operating expense guide UNCHANGED guide ~$2.485-2.545B vs. cons ~$2.51B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NDAQ Guide Financial Technology / Solutions ARR growth (medium-term framework) UNKNOWN guide ~16-18% FinTech ARR vs. cons ~15% (2H26/FY26) LOW
NDAQ Guide Index/ETP AUM flows post BlackRock+State Street Nasdaq-100 launch BETTER pred index rev ~$240M (+22%) vs. cons ~$225M (Q2'26) LOW
NDAQ Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
NDAQ Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (STABILIZE) June market volatility likely boosted Market Services volumes, supporting a modest revenue/EPS beat on a de-rated, beaten-down stock (still -6% YTD despite a sharp recovery off the $76.85 June low). Day-1 pop should hold rather than run: the out-period math is mixed — management pre-flagged a Q2 expense step-up (comp-cycle timing) and a tough Market Services comp (+22% in Q2'25), plus lumpy Q1 one-time items that don't repeat, which caps upward revisions. Durable ARR (+12%) and reassuring index-flow commentary keep estimates roughly stable, so the reaction stabilizes rather than fades or compounds. LOW