{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Non-GAAP EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.00 vs. cons ~$0.98",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.47B vs. cons ~$1.45B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total ARR",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.28B (+12%) vs. cons ~$3.25B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 non-GAAP operating expense guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.485-2.545B vs. cons ~$2.51B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Financial Technology / Solutions ARR growth (medium-term framework)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~16-18% FinTech ARR vs. cons ~15% (2H26/FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Index/ETP AUM flows post BlackRock+State Street Nasdaq-100 launch",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred index rev ~$240M (+22%) vs. cons ~$225M (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "June market volatility likely boosted Market Services volumes, supporting a modest revenue/EPS beat on a de-rated, beaten-down stock (still -6% YTD despite a sharp recovery off the $76.85 June low). Day-1 pop should hold rather than run: the out-period math is mixed \u2014 management pre-flagged a Q2 expense step-up (comp-cycle timing) and a tough Market Services comp (+22% in Q2'25), plus lumpy Q1 one-time items that don't repeat, which caps upward revisions. Durable ARR (+12%) and reassuring index-flow commentary keep estimates roughly stable, so the reaction stabilizes rather than fades or compounds.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}