I'll research NDAQ before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings materials, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent quarter's earnings call and release, plus check recent news.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 release (comparison base) and recent news/analyst commentary.Let me pull consensus estimates and recent context via web search, plus the Q3 2025 data point for trend.I now have a complete picture across the last four quarters plus the market/price backdrop. (Web search returned no forward 2026 consensus data, so the estimates below are my own model built from NDAQ's disclosed trends.) Here's the preview.
Nasdaq enters this print with real operating momentum but a share price that hasn't rewarded it. NDAQ closed July 22 at $90.92, down roughly 6% year-to-date (from $96.66 to start 2026) — and that masks a violent round-trip: the stock bottomed near $76.85 on June 29 (a ~17% drawdown from its late-May level) before snapping back above $94 in mid-July. Peers fared no better through the mid-year risk-off episode (ICE −11% YTD, CME −8%), suggesting a sector-wide de-rating on macro/rate fears rather than a Nasdaq-specific problem.
The tension for investors: fundamentals have been accelerating (Q1 2026 was, per management, one of the strongest starts in company history) while the multiple has compressed. This quarter is a chance for the operating story to reassert itself.
Q1 2026 set a high bar and defines the run-rate heading into Q2: - Net revenue $1.4B, +13%; Solutions revenue +14%; total ARR $3.2B, +12% - Financial Technology +18% — a record growth rate — with ACV bookings up >50% YoY (80% cloud) - Non-GAAP EPS $0.96, +21%; non-GAAP operating margin 57% (+2pts) - Divisions: Capital Access Platforms +10% rev / +7% ARR; FinTech +18% rev / +16% ARR; Market Services +10% net revenue - Aggressive capital return: $548M of buybacks in Q1 (more than all of 2025's $616M), plus the dividend raised to $0.31/quarter
| Metric (Q2 2025) | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $1,306M | +13% |
| Solutions revenue | $991M | +10% |
| Market Services net | $306M | +22% (record) |
| Financial Technology | $464M | +10% |
| Index revenue | $196M | +17% |
| ARR | $2,931M | +10% |
| Non-GAAP operating income | $721M | +16% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.85 | +24% |
| Non-GAAP op. margin | 55% | +2pts |
Trend line for context (non-GAAP EPS): Q2'25 $0.85 → Q3'25 $0.88 → Q4'25 $0.96 → Q1'26 $0.96. Full-year 2025 landed at $3.48 (+24%).
Note the comp difficulty: Market Services' +22% in Q2 2025 was a genuine record, boosted by record U.S. cash-equities volumes and the Russell reconstitution. That's a tough base to lap in Q2 2026.
Building off the disclosed trajectory and management's mid-quarter commentary:
| Metric | My Q2'26 estimate | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | ~$1.45–1.48B | +11–13% |
| Solutions revenue | ~$1.12–1.13B | +13–14% |
| Financial Technology | ~$535–545M | +15–17% |
| Index revenue | ~$235–245M | +20–25% |
| Market Services net | ~$315–330M | +3–8% (tough comp) |
| Non-GAAP EPS | ~$0.98–1.02 | +15–19% |
| Non-GAAP op. margin | ~56–57% | flat-to-up |
| Total ARR | ~$3.2–3.3B | ~+11–12% |
A print in this range would represent the eighth-plus consecutive quarter of low-teens net revenue growth and continued margin expansion. Given how the stock has traded, the bar for a positive reaction is likely less about the headline and more about ARR durability and forward signals (see below).
1) Index / ETP flows and the BlackRock + State Street Nasdaq-100 launches. This is the most important watch item. Management said in April it would expand Nasdaq-100 access "later in the spring" via BlackRock and State Street (alongside long-time partner Invesco/QQQ), at pricing consistent with QQQ terms. Q2 is the first quarter that could show early impact. Two questions: (a) did the new ETFs expand the pie (institutional/retail reach) or cannibalize QQQ, and (b) did the June market swoon dent AUM/flows? Recall average ETP AUM hit a record $877B in Q1 and the company cited $15B of net ETP inflows as of April 20 — a strong early-Q2 signal, though June volatility is a wildcard.
2) FinTech ARR conversion — the back-half ramp. The bull case rests on FinTech's >50% ACV bookings growth and a heavy pipeline of Verafin enterprise/Tier-1 wins converting to recognized ARR. Management was explicit that many 2H'25 and Q1'26 signings won't hit ARR until they're fully implemented later in 2026. Watch FinTech ARR growth (16% in Q1) and any commentary on the newly cross-sold Tier-1 AxiomSL/Calypso + Verafin relationship flagged in April. Also watch for one-time/upfront items — Q1 had ~4pts of Capital Markets Tech growth from M&A termination fees and on-prem Calypso upfront revenue that won't repeat.
3) Market Services and the June volatility. The sharp June drawdown likely drove elevated volumes — potentially a tailwind — but Q2'25's record is a demanding comp, and mix shift toward lower-capture order flow (and micro vs. E-mini futures) has been pressuring capture rates. Net revenue growth here will likely decelerate from the divisional headline.
4) Expense guidance and margins. Nasdaq raised its 2026 non-GAAP opex guide to $2.485–2.545B (from $2.455–2.535B) in Q1, citing strong revenue. Management flagged higher expense growth in Q2 than Q1 due to annual comp-cycle timing — so don't be surprised by a sequential opex step-up. Watch for any further guide revision and confirmation of the $100M AI efficiency target by end-2027 (mostly landing in 2027). Tax rate guide: 22.5–24.5%.
5) Strategic/structural catalysts — 23/5 and tokenization. These are 2026's narrative drivers even if not yet material to numbers: - 23/5 "always-on" trading has SEC approval with a targeted December 6, 2026 launch. Watch for readiness updates and the pull-through demand it's creating in market data (international ELAs), surveillance, Calypso collateral management, and colocation. - Tokenized securities: SEC approval secured; working with DTCC toward a possible first trade before year-end (likely early-stage). Nasdaq's proprietary "equity token design" benefits are targeted for 1H 2027.
Nasdaq is in harvest mode on the balance sheet post-Adenza: gross leverage was ~2.8x in Q1 (within the mid-to-high-2s target), both agencies have restored pre-Adenza ratings (S&P to BBB+), and the company hit its deleveraging milestone ~16 months early. With the dividend stepped up to $0.31 and buybacks accelerating opportunistically into weakness, watch the pace of Q2 repurchases — given the June dip near $77, management's Q1 comment about "taking advantage of market volatility" suggests they may have leaned in again. FCF conversion has been running ~100%+.
Bull case: Low-teens organic growth + margin expansion + accelerating FinTech ARR + a de-rated stock = attractive risk/reward. The BlackRock/State Street distribution expansion and 23/5/tokenization optionality are multi-year growth vectors not in the price after a −6% YTD, post-drawdown setup.
Bear case: Tough Market Services comp, potential QQQ cannibalization risk, June volatility denting AUM, a Q2 expense step-up, and lumpy one-time items make it easy to "miss the whisper" even on a solid quarter. With the stock having round-tripped violently, sentiment is fragile and the multiple has been re-rating with rate-sensitive financials.
Expect another quarter of low-teens net revenue growth, ~57% non-GAAP margins, and ~$1.00 non-GAAP EPS (mid-to-high-teens growth). The numbers are likely fine; the reaction will hinge on three forward signals — index flows/AUM after the new ETF launches and June volatility, evidence that FinTech's booked ACV is converting to ARR on schedule into 2H, and any change to full-year expense guidance. Given the beaten-down setup, a clean quarter with reassuring ARR and index commentary could be a positive catalyst; conversely, capture pressure in Market Services or a soft index flow number are the most likely sources of disappointment.
Estimates and probabilities above are my own analysis derived from Nasdaq's most recent disclosures (Q1 2026 call, Q2–Q4 2025 releases) and market pricing through July 22, 2026; they are not official published consensus. This is research commentary, not investment advice.