NDAQ Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NDAQ Report Non-GAAP Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.00 vs. cons $0.97 MEDIUM
NDAQ Report Net Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.475B vs. cons $1.455B MEDIUM
NDAQ Report Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) BEAT pred ~$3.30B (~13% y/y) vs. cons/implied ~$3.25B (~11.5% y/y) LOW
NDAQ Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expense Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.515B midpoint (range reiterated $2.485B-$2.545B) vs. cons ~$2.51B (FY2026) HIGH
NDAQ Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP Tax Rate Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~23.5% (range 22.5%-24.5%) vs. cons ~23.5% (FY2026) HIGH
NDAQ Guide ETP/Index Net Inflows Momentum Commentary BETTER guide/implied ~$25B cumulative net inflows vs. prior cited pace of ~$15B as of April 20 (H1 2026) LOW
NDAQ Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
NDAQ Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.8% (FADE) Initial pop from a likely EPS/revenue beat and record IPO/listings tailwind should be well-received, but the Q1 call already flagged that FinTech's 18% growth was inflated ~4pts by one-time Calypso/M&A termination items and that comp-cycle expense growth steps up in Q2 — so as analysts model out H2, implicit estimate cuts to FinTech ARR/revenue growth and margin trajectory likely temper full follow-through, causing partial fade of the day-1 pop over the next several sessions even if headline beats are confirmed. LOW