Timing note: Nasdaq scheduled its 2Q26 results release for Thursday, July 23, 2026 at approximately 7:00 a.m. ET, followed by an 8:00 a.m. ET conference call. That is today, not tomorrow. This preview is therefore framed around the scheduled event and the information available ahead of the release.
Nasdaq enters 2Q26 with substantial operating momentum. The key question is less whether it can post growth, and more whether it can sustain the unusually strong 1Q pace while demonstrating that the growth is increasingly recurring, broad-based, and not overly dependent on favorable trading conditions or discrete revenue items.
The setup is constructive:
The main challenge: 1Q was exceptionally strong. Financial Technology contained several favorable items, while Market Services had record activity. Investors will likely demand evidence that Nasdaq’s high-growth, high-margin “solutions” narrative remains intact even as quarterly comparisons become tougher.
This is the most important area of the report.
In 1Q26, Financial Technology revenue rose 20% reported / 18% organic to $517 million, with ARR up 16% organic. Capital Markets Technology grew 20% organically, Financial Crime Management Technology grew 21%, and Regulatory Technology grew 12%.
For 2Q, investors should focus on:
Read-through: Continued high-teens organic FinTech growth, with healthy ARR and bookings, would reinforce the view that Nasdaq is becoming more of a durable infrastructure-and-software compounder than a cyclical exchange operator.
Nasdaq reported $1.082 billion of Solutions revenue in 1Q26, up 14%, and total ARR of $3.188 billion, up 13% reported / 12% organic.
The 2Q report should answer whether the company can keep compounding its subscription, data, software, and workflow franchises at a rate that supports its updated medium-term outlook:
| Key metric | 1Q26 result | Why it matters in 2Q |
|---|---|---|
| Solutions revenue growth | 14% | Core measure of the less-cyclical business mix |
| Total ARR growth | 12% organic | Forward indicator for recurring revenue durability |
| FinTech ARR growth | 16% organic | Best measure of cloud/land-and-expand momentum |
| Capital Access Platforms ARR growth | 7% organic | Tests data, workflow, listings, and index-adjacent execution |
A meaningful deceleration in ARR would matter more than a modest quarterly revenue miss, particularly if it points to slower cloud implementation, longer enterprise sales cycles, or pressure in Corporate Solutions.
Index revenue grew 14% in 1Q26 to $220 million, supported by record average ETP AUM of $877 billion. Net inflows were only $6 billion in 1Q, but management said that flows had improved to $15 billion through April 20, suggesting a potentially better 2Q setup.
Key items to watch:
Index is one of Nasdaq’s best long-term assets, but its quarterly revenue can be influenced by market levels, flows, and futures-volume mix. A strong print would likely feature both healthy AUM and indications that broadened distribution is expanding institutional adoption.
Market Services generated record 1Q net revenue of $317 million, up 13% reported / 10% organic. The result benefited from record U.S. cash-equity and options volumes, higher European activity, and index-options growth.
For 2Q, the debate is not simply whether volumes stayed elevated. It is whether Nasdaq preserved its economics:
The 2Q25 comparison is demanding: Market Services net revenue was $306 million, up 21% organically at the time. As a result, even another good quarter may produce a more modest growth rate.
Nasdaq produced a 57% non-GAAP operating margin in 1Q26, up two percentage points year over year, as non-GAAP operating income grew 17%.
However, management explicitly stated that 2Q expense growth should be higher than 1Q, partly due to the timing of its annual compensation cycle. Its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating-expense guidance is $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion, while the non-GAAP tax-rate guide remains 22.5% to 24.5%.
The key questions:
At its February Investor Day, Nasdaq outlined a goal of $100 million of run-rate AI productivity efficiencies by year-end 2027, with the majority of the benefit expected in 2027. Therefore, investors should not expect AI savings to fully offset near-term investment and compensation costs in 2Q26.
| Metric | 2Q25 actual | 1Q26 actual | 2Q26 watch item |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $1.306B | $1.407B | Ability to sustain double-digit growth |
| Solutions revenue | $991M | $1.082B | Recurring-growth durability |
| Financial Technology revenue | $464M | $517M | High-teens organic growth and bookings quality |
| Market Services, net | $306M | $317M | Volumes, capture, and share |
| Index revenue | $196M | $220M | AUM, flows, and derivatives mix |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.85 | $0.96 | Revenue conversion after higher 2Q expenses |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 55% | 57% | Operating-leverage durability |
Note: No consensus estimate is included here because no independently sourced current consensus was available in the research materials.
NDAQ closed at $90.92 on July 22, 2026. The shares have recovered from a late-June low near $76.85, but remain below the $96.66 close on January 2, 2026. That suggests the market has regained some confidence heading into earnings but may still be looking for confirmation on growth durability, margins, and the value of Nasdaq’s AI/always-on-market initiatives.
The report is likely to be judged on the combination of:
A bullish outcome would include:
A bearish result would likely involve:
Nasdaq’s 2Q26 report is primarily a test of whether the company can extend its 1Q26 broad-based growth and margin expansion. The highest-value indicators will be FinTech ARR and bookings quality, Index AUM/flows, Market Services capture, and management’s confidence in the 2026 expense framework.
The core investment debate is increasingly favorable: Nasdaq has a large and growing recurring-revenue base, high incremental margins, strong cash generation, and credible growth opportunities in AI, cloud modernization, cross-selling, data, index distribution, and always-on markets. But after a very strong first quarter, the bar is higher—particularly for Financial Technology—and investors will want proof that revenue growth remains durable beyond favorable market activity and discrete items.