Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive but not euphoric — Financial Technology ARR growth and index ETP inflows are the two biggest swing factors, with consensus sitting at a modest bar that NDAQ has cleared for five consecutive quarters.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for NDAQ looks achievable: consensus net revenue of ~$1.46B implies roughly 11% YoY growth, a step-up from Q1’s $1.41B actual but consistent with the trajectory management has guided toward. The tone from the Q1 call was notably confident — management flagged strong early-Q2 ETP inflows ($15B as of April 20), an enterprise upsell and Tier-1 cross-sell in Verafin already signed, and improving IPO activity — all pointing to a quarter where the fintech and index engines are both firing. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print, with the Q2 consensus EPS moving from $0.943 to $0.985, suggesting the Street is gradually pricing in the momentum rather than getting ahead of it. The stock has lagged the broader financial sector since earnings (NDAQ +4.4% vs. XLF +8.2% and SPY +5.5%), with a sharp mid-June dip to ~$77 creating a reset that has since partially recovered to ~$91 — the underperformance likely reflects the index-reset headwind and higher Q2 expense guidance rather than fundamental deterioration. The key wildcard is Financial Technology revenue growth: Q1 delivered the highest-ever quarterly fintech growth rate, and any moderation back toward the mid-teens could disappoint a market that has begun to price in sustained acceleration, while a second consecutive record quarter would be a meaningful positive catalyst.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate bar — NDAQ has beaten on both revenue and EPS for five straight quarters. Financial Technology revenue growth rate is the bigger swing factor; index ETP AUM and the derivatives rate reset are secondary but meaningful.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Top KPI 1: Net Revenue (Revenues less transaction-based expenses)

Top KPI 2: Non-GAAP Diluted EPS (Operating)

Pattern: NDAQ has beaten consensus on both net revenue and non-GAAP EPS in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with EPS beats averaging ~4% and revenue beats averaging ~1.2%. The consistency of the beat pattern suggests consensus is systematically conservative, though the magnitude of EPS beats has narrowed slightly in recent quarters as the bar has risen.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: NDAQ does not provide quarterly revenue or EPS guidance, but management raised FY2026 non-GAAP opex guidance modestly at Q1 earnings and flagged higher Q2 expense growth due to the annual compensation cycle. Tone is constructive — management cited strong early-Q2 ETP inflows, a new Verafin Tier-1 cross-sell, and improving IPO activity.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 2026 print across all key KPIs, with Q2 2026 EPS consensus rising from $0.943 to $0.985 (+4.5%) and FY2026 EPS from $3.923 to $4.012 (+2.3%). Revisions are tracking with management’s constructive tone rather than diverging, suggesting the gap represents modest cushion rather than risk.

Estimates have moved consistently higher since the Q1 print, with the largest revision in Q2 EPS (+4.5%) and Capital Access Platforms (+3.0%), reflecting the index sharing agreement reset tailwind and Verafin momentum. Financial Technology consensus is essentially flat, suggesting the Street is not yet pricing in a repeat of Q1’s record growth rate — this creates asymmetric upside if fintech execution continues to surprise.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-earnings baseline as of April 28, 2026 (5 trading days after April 23, 2026 earnings).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: NDAQ has underperformed both XLF (+8.2%) and SPY (+5.5%) since the Q1 earnings date, gaining only +4.4% from $87.04 to $90.90. The underperformance is driven by a sharp mid-June selloff to a trough of $76.85 on June 29 — likely reflecting the index derivatives rate reset headwind and higher Q2 expense guidance — followed by a recovery as the market re-focused on the strong fundamental setup.

NDAQ vs. XLF (Financials ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at April 23, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

• NDAQ: +4.4% from $87.04 to $90.90 (as of July 22, 2026). Peak of $94.25 on July 16; trough of $76.85 on June 29.
• XLF (Financials Select Sector SPDR): +8.2% from $51.80 to $56.05. Sector ETF selected as the most relevant benchmark for NDAQ’s exchange/financial data sub-sector.
• S&P 500 (SPY): +5.5% from $708.45 to $747.41.
• Key events: June 1 — Nasdaq’s listed companies surpassed NYSE in total global market cap for the first time (milestone announcement). July 1 — NDAQ secured a new $1.5B revolving credit facility (8-K filed), signaling balance sheet flexibility ahead of potential capital deployment.
• Mid-June dip: NDAQ fell from ~$91 on June 15 to $77.65 on June 25 (-14.7% in 8 trading days), significantly underperforming XLF and SPY over the same period. The selloff appears driven by index-reset headwind concerns and broader market rotation rather than company-specific negative news.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the Nasdaq-100 methodology modernization (effective May 1, 2026) and the confirmed December 6, 2026 launch of 23/5 trading — both structural catalysts that expand NDAQ’s addressable revenue opportunity and reinforce the platform narrative heading into Q2.

• May 1, 2026 — Nasdaq-100 Methodology Modernization Implemented. Three changes took effect: (1) shift from annual to quarterly rebalancing, (2) fast-entry pathway for top-40 companies by market cap (~15 trading days), and (3) graduated float-adjusted weighting replacing the prior minimum float rule. Management framed this as a structural response to companies staying private longer and larger IPOs with smaller floats. Implication: strengthens the index franchise’s long-term competitiveness and may attract additional ETF licensees.
• April 23, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat; Accelerated Share Repurchases. NDAQ reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.96 vs. $0.93 consensus and net revenue of $1,407M vs. ~$1,377M consensus. Notably, NDAQ repurchased nearly as much stock in Q1 2026 as in all of FY2025, taking advantage of market volatility. Gross leverage ended at ~2.8x, within the mid-to-high 2s target.
• April 23, 2026 — Q2 2026 Early Indicators Flagged on Earnings Call. Management cited $15B in ETP net inflows as of April 20, an enterprise upsell and new Tier-1 Verafin cross-sell signed early in Q2, and an improving IPO environment. Drug trafficking analytic and GenAI platform extension both slated for Q2 launch.
• May 1, 2026 — Nasdaq-100 Methodology Changes Live. Following open industry consultation in fall 2025, three targeted changes implemented. Implication: quarterly rebalancing creates incremental trading and data revenue opportunities.
• ~Late May 2026 — Nasdaq Listed Market Cap Surpasses NYSE Globally. For the first time in company history, Nasdaq’s listed companies exceeded NYSE in total global market capitalization. Management described this as a generational milestone. Implication: reinforces listings franchise strength and brand positioning for future IPO pipeline.
• June 16, 2026 — Annual Shareholder Meeting; Board, Pay, Auditor Ratified. Routine governance event; no material changes to board composition or executive compensation structure. No negative shareholder activism signals.
• July 1, 2026 — New $1.5B Revolving Credit Facility Secured (8-K). NDAQ replaced its prior revolving credit facility with a new $1.5B facility. Implication: enhances financial flexibility for bolt-on M&A, share repurchases, or refinancing; signals lender confidence in credit profile at ~2.8x leverage.
• Ongoing — Verafin Agentic AI Momentum. Over 500 clients now deploying the agentic AI workforce (up ~40% since Investor Day), with two live agents (sanctions and enhanced due diligence) and six more on the product roadmap. ROI calculator deployed in client conversations. Implication: accelerating adoption supports mid-twenties ARR growth characterization and enterprise deal pipeline.
• Ongoing — FIS Distribution Partnership for Verafin. Agreement to deliver AML and fraud solutions to FIS banking and payments clients, expanding Verafin’s reach beyond direct sales. Implication: incremental ARR growth vector not fully reflected in near-term consensus.
• Ongoing — Tokenization Strategy (H1 2027 Target). Nasdaq’s issuer-centric equity token design with Kraken/Payward partnership targeting H1 2027 operational launch. DTCC expressed interest in achieving a first tokenized trade before year-end 2026. Implication: not a near-term revenue driver but a long-term optionality catalyst.
• Ongoing — Outcome-Oriented/Event Options (Year-End Launch Target). SEC approval sought for binary-style options on Nasdaq-100 directional performance. OCC engaged on risk and margin models. Implication: potential new revenue stream in Market Services; read-through from CME’s prediction market traction (140K+ accounts, 4M+ ADV) is encouraging.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 earnings (MCO, CME, MSCI) and Q1 2026 earnings with Q2 forward guidance (CBOE, ICE, SPGI) paints a broadly constructive backdrop for NDAQ’s Q2: record index AUM, strong derivatives volumes, robust data demand, and healthy capital markets activity all read through positively. The one nuance is that NDAQ’s fintech ARR growth (mid-teens) is a company-specific driver not directly corroborated by peers.

Note: Only forward-looking commentary about Q2 2026 conditions or post-Q1 2026 outlook is included below. Backward-looking Q1 2025 or Q4 2025 results commentary from peers has been excluded.

MSCI (Q2 2026 Earnings — July 21, 2026) — Index AUM & Data Demand Read-Through

Relevance to NDAQ: MSCI’s index business is the closest structural analog to NDAQ’s Capital Access Platforms (index licensing and ETP AUM-linked fees). MSCI’s Q2 results provide a direct read-through on index AUM trends and institutional demand for index products.

• Record index AUM: MSCI reported ETF AUM linked to its indices grew to over $2.8 trillion in Q2 2026, with close to $40 billion of cash inflows in the quarter. Non-ETF passive AUM stood at ~$5 trillion as of June 30. Asset-based fee (ABF) run rate reached ~$950M, growing 25% YoY. → Strong read-through for NDAQ’s index ETP AUM and fee revenue in Q2.
• Organic revenue growth of 12%+: MSCI delivered 12%+ organic revenue growth, 19% adjusted EPS growth, and 14% EBITDA growth in Q2 2026. Index subscription run rate growth accelerated to 11%+, driven by recurring net new subscription sales of $28M+ (up 41% YoY). → Validates the index franchise growth narrative NDAQ has been building.
• Hedge fund and trader demand at record levels: MSCI posted its best quarter on record with hedge funds — 19% subscription run rate growth, $15M in recurring net new sales (up 75% YoY), including three separate seven-figure deals. Recurring net new sales with hedge funds more than tripled YoY. → Positive read-through for NDAQ’s derivatives and market data businesses.
• Bullish H2 2026 outlook: MSCI management stated they are “pretty bullish” on the outlook, with a “very good pipeline” for the next few quarters. Over 80 new products launched in the last two quarters vs. 40+ in all of 2024. → Constructive for NDAQ’s own product pipeline execution.
• AI monetization gaining traction: Over 1,000 clients using MSCI’s Index AI Insights (launched February 2026); hundreds accessing solutions through preferred AI models. MSCI signed its first “training license” for a client to train a model using MSCI content. → Validates NDAQ’s own AI monetization strategy (Verafin agentic workers, Surveillance Calibration Copilot).

CME Group (Q2 2026 Earnings — July 22, 2026) — Derivatives Volume & Market Conditions Read-Through

Relevance to NDAQ: CME’s derivatives volumes and market data commentary provide a read-through for NDAQ’s Market Services (US equity derivatives, index options) and market data businesses.

• Record Q2 revenue: CME reported Q2 2026 revenue of over $1.7B (up 1% YoY), marking a record for second-quarter revenue. ADV of 29.8M contracts was the second-highest Q2 in CME’s history. Open interest ended Q2 up 8% YoY and 16% since the start of 2026. → Elevated derivatives activity is a positive read-through for NDAQ’s equity derivatives and index options volumes.
• Equity complex surging: CME’s equity complex ADV was 8.6M in Q2 (up 13% YoY), with June at 10.1M (up 54% YoY). July-to-date equity ADV tracking at ~7.8M, up 40-50% vs. July 2025. → Strong equity derivatives demand environment directly benefits NDAQ’s options and futures businesses.
• Market data at record levels: CME market data revenue grew 20% to $238M in Q2 2026, marking 33 consecutive quarters of YoY growth and the 8th consecutive quarter of record revenue. Growth driven by price increases, 3.5% QoQ professional subscriber growth, and variable components. → Validates the structural demand for exchange market data; positive for NDAQ’s market data segment.
• Q3 2026 volume momentum strong: CME noted July-to-date total volume tracking 18% ahead of last year, with equity complex up 40-50%. → Suggests the elevated volume environment is carrying into Q3, a positive signal for NDAQ’s Market Services.
• Prediction markets gaining traction: CME’s event contracts saw ADV of 4M+/day in Q2 (up 40% vs. Q1), with 140K+ accounts trading. → Validates NDAQ’s own pursuit of outcome-oriented/event options (SEC approval pending, year-end launch target).
• 24/7 crypto trading launched: CME successfully introduced 24/7 trading of crypto futures in Q2, with $1.5B+ traded over the first 8 weekends. → Read-through for NDAQ’s December 6, 2026 23/5 trading launch — early demand signals are encouraging.

Moody’s Corporation (Q2 2026 Earnings — July 22, 2026) — Capital Markets Activity & Data Analytics Read-Through

Relevance to NDAQ: MCO’s commentary on capital markets activity, AI-driven data demand, and ARR growth provides a read-through for NDAQ’s listings environment, financial crime management technology, and broader fintech ARR trajectory.

• Strong capital markets rebound in Q2: MCO reported 15% enterprise revenue growth, with MIS transaction revenue up 34% and more than $2 trillion of debt rated for the second consecutive quarter. Broad-based strength across all asset classes, powered by AI-related investment, private credit, digital finance, and energy transition. → Constructive capital markets backdrop supports NDAQ’s listings and IPO pipeline.
• Hyperscaler issuance exceeding forecasts: Hyperscalers have already exceeded MCO’s 2026 forecast for issuance, issuing more debt this year than in the last three years combined. Hyperscaler CapEx expected to approach $800B in 2026. → AI infrastructure investment cycle is a sustained tailwind for capital markets activity and NDAQ’s listings franchise.
• Moody’s Analytics ARR growing ~9% YoY: MA ARR reached ~$3.7B, up ~9% YoY, with 95% trailing 12-month retention. Decision Solutions (KYC, banking, insurance) delivered 10%+ ARR growth. → Validates the structural demand for financial data and analytics solutions; comparable to NDAQ’s fintech ARR growth trajectory.
• AI-powered compliance reducing false positives by ~50%: MCO’s AI-powered screening solutions are helping drive ~50% reduction in false positive alerts. Over 630M entities in MCO’s data estate. → Directly validates NDAQ’s Verafin value proposition (Surveillance Calibration Copilot, agentic AI workers).
• H2 2026 setup described as “meaningfully better, lower risk”: MCO management noted the planned recovery in issuance activity landed earlier than expected in Q2, de-risking H2. Potential tailwinds include sustained M&A pickup, hyperscaler issuance running hotter, and a rate cut. → Positive macro read-through for NDAQ’s listings and capital markets technology businesses.
• Guidance raised: MCO raised adjusted diluted EPS guidance midpoint to $16.75 (12% growth at midpoint) and raised share repurchase guidance to $3B for 2026. → Peer confidence in the operating environment is a positive signal for NDAQ’s own earnings trajectory.

Cboe Global Markets (Q1 2026 Earnings — May 1, 2026) — Options Volumes & Data Read-Through (Q2 Forward Guidance)

Relevance to NDAQ: Cboe’s commentary on options volumes, data demand, and prediction markets provides a read-through for NDAQ’s equity derivatives and Market Services businesses. Note: Cboe Q1 2026 results are included here because management provided explicit Q2 2026 and full-year 2026 forward guidance.

• Record options volumes in Q1 2026 with strong Q2 setup: Cboe’s SPX options averaged just under 5M contracts/day in Q1 (up 34% YoY), with March hitting 5.4M (a new monthly record). Global trading hours volumes rose 32%+ to a record high. → Elevated options activity environment is a direct positive read-through for NDAQ’s index options and equity derivatives volumes in Q2.
• Data Vantage growing 19% YoY; full-year guidance low-double-digits: Cboe’s Data Vantage net revenue grew 19% in Q1, with ~85% of growth from new units/sales rather than pricing. Full-year 2026 Data Vantage organic growth guided to low-double-digit range. → Structural demand for exchange data is robust; positive for NDAQ’s market data and data analytics businesses.
• Full-year 2026 total organic net revenue growth guided to low-double-digit to mid-teens: Cboe raised its full-year 2026 total organic net revenue growth guidance to low-double-digit to mid-teens range, while lowering adjusted opex guidance by ~$26M at the midpoint. → Peer confidence in the exchange/data revenue environment for 2026 is a positive read-through for NDAQ.
• Event contracts and prediction markets: Cboe plans to launch securities-based event contracts (subject to regulatory approval) based on its Mini SPX contract, with longer-term plans to expand to economic and financial indicators. → Validates NDAQ’s own event options strategy; competitive dynamic to watch.
• 0DTE options driving structural volume growth: ~60% of SPX volume is in 0DTE options, with both retail and institutional engagement deepening. Non-0DTE options jumped 26%+ in March as macro uncertainty drove longer-dated hedging demand. → Multi-dimensional options demand (0DTE + longer-dated) is a positive for NDAQ’s options franchise.

ICE (Q1 2026 Earnings — April 30, 2026) — Exchange Data & Fixed Income Read-Through (Q2 Forward Guidance)

Relevance to NDAQ: ICE’s commentary on exchange data demand, fixed income data, and market conditions provides a read-through for NDAQ’s market data and financial technology businesses. ICE Q1 2026 results included here for Q2 2026 forward guidance.

• Record Q1 2026 performance; Q2 opex guidance stable: ICE reported its strongest quarter in company history — net revenues of $3B (up 18%), adjusted EPS of $2.35 (up 37%). Q2 2026 adjusted opex guided to $1.030B–$1.040B, consistent with Q1. → Stable cost structure and record revenues signal a healthy exchange operating environment for Q2.
• Exchange data demand at record levels: ICE’s Exchange Data Services and NYSE listings franchise reached a record $405M (up 10% YoY), with Exchange Data and Connectivity Services growing 13%. ICE has doubled its data center capacity since 2020, with Hall 5 sold out and Hall 6 being sold. → Structural demand for exchange data and connectivity is robust; positive for NDAQ’s market data and access businesses.
• Fixed income index AUM at record $829B (up 21% YoY): ICE’s index business ended Q1 with a record $829B in ETF AUM, up 21% YoY. Total assets benchmarked to ICE indices now ~$2 trillion. → Broad index AUM growth across the industry is a positive read-through for NDAQ’s index ETP AUM trajectory.
• AI-driven data demand accelerating: ICE’s private global data center network (750+ data sources, 150 trading venues, 24 countries) is benefiting from secular demand trends including higher messaging activity and AI-driven demand for capacity. ICE launched an MCP server for AI access to data. → AI as a data demand driver is a structural tailwind for NDAQ’s market data and financial technology businesses.
• Tokenization strategy advancing: NYSE is building a tokenized securities platform combining its Pillar matching engine with blockchain-based settlement for 24/7 trading. ICE signed an MOU with Securitize as the first digital transfer agent. → Competitive read-through for NDAQ’s own tokenization strategy (H1 2027 target); both exchanges are racing toward similar endpoints.

S&P Global (Q1 2026 Earnings — April 28, 2026) — Index Business & Data Analytics Read-Through (Q2 Forward Guidance)

Relevance to NDAQ: SPGI’s commentary on its Indices business, data analytics demand, and AI monetization provides a read-through for NDAQ’s Capital Access Platforms and financial technology businesses. SPGI Q1 2026 results included here for Q2 2026 forward guidance.

• Indices revenue grew 17% in Q1; Q2 expected to remain robust: SPGI’s Indices revenue grew 17% in Q1 with double-digit growth across all business lines. Asset-linked fees grew 18%, driven by equity market appreciation and net inflows. Q2 guidance calls for continued robust growth before deceleration in H2 due to tougher comps. → Strong index revenue environment in Q2 is a direct positive read-through for NDAQ’s Capital Access Platforms.
• ETD revenue up 18% in Q1 on strong SPX volumes: SPGI’s Exchange-Traded Derivatives revenue grew 18% in Q1, driven by strong SPX volumes. SPGI noted SPX “continues to demonstrate the natural hedge we have in this business during times of geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions.” → Elevated SPX derivatives volumes benefit NDAQ’s index options business (NDAQ holds the Nasdaq-100 derivatives franchise).
• AI customers growing ACV 30%+ faster than non-AI customers: SPGI reported ACV growth among AI customers is 30% higher in Market Intelligence and double the growth rate in Energy vs. non-AI customers. Clients willing to pay 35-45% more at renewal for AI-ready data. → AI as a data monetization driver validates NDAQ’s strategy of embedding AI into financial technology products.
• Full-year 2026 guidance reiterated at 6-8% organic revenue growth: SPGI reiterated FY2026 organic constant currency revenue growth guidance of 6-8% and 50-75bps of margin expansion. Adjusted EPS guidance unchanged. → Peer confidence in the 2026 operating environment is a positive signal for NDAQ’s own FY2026 trajectory.
• Private credit driving incremental data demand: SPGI noted private credit revenues up 25%+ in Q1, with increased scrutiny driving demand for high-quality independent opinions. → Private credit growth is a structural tailwind for financial data and analytics businesses, including NDAQ’s AxiomSL regulatory technology.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 earnings is dominated by routine 10b5-1 planned sales and one notable open-market purchase by Investor AB (10% owner). No discretionary open-market selling by executives — the absence of opportunistic insider selling into the post-earnings rally is a mild positive signal.

The most notable transaction is Investor AB’s open-market purchase of 56,782 shares on June 11, 2026 — a date when NDAQ was trading near recent lows (~$86-87). As a 10% strategic owner, Investor AB’s decision to add to its position at depressed prices is a constructive signal. The cluster of executive sales in late April (Cohen, Peterson, Daly) immediately following the Q1 beat is typical post-earnings behavior and not a negative signal given the large retained positions. No clustered discretionary selling by multiple insiders at current price levels.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data). Filing date window: April 23, 2026 – July 22, 2026.