Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

Nasdaq, Inc.

Earnings Date

July 23, 2026

Ticker

NDAQ US

Prepared

July 22, 2026

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Event Time

8:00 AM ET

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus has been revised steadily higher since the Q1 print, the bar on Financial Technology ARR growth is achievable given strong pipeline commentary, and elevated market volumes through Q2 provide a tailwind to Market Services; the single biggest swing factor is whether Verafin enterprise implementations accelerate ARR recognition into the back half.

Heading into Q2 2026 results, the consensus bar looks beatable but not easy. Net revenue consensus of ~$1.46B implies ~12% YoY growth, a step-up from Q1's 13% that management guided would face a higher expense run-rate in Q2 due to annual compensation cycle timing. The tone from management at three June conferences was consistently constructive: Tal Cohen cited strong corporate earnings, robust retail engagement, a favorable regulatory backdrop, and AI as a sustained tailwind through April and May, while reiterating confidence in the $100M cross-sell run-rate target by end-2027. Estimate revisions have drifted steadily upward since the April 23 print — 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS consensus has risen from $0.943 to $0.985 and net revenue consensus from $1.418B to $1.456B — suggesting the Street is already pricing in a solid quarter, leaving less room for a large upside surprise. The stock has underperformed since Q1 earnings (down ~5% vs. SPY +5%), with multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA contracting ~17% over six months) absorbing much of the fundamental momentum, which means a clean beat could drive meaningful re-rating. The key wildcard is the pace of Verafin enterprise ARR recognition: management flagged that H2 2026 is when implementations from H2 2025 signings begin flowing into ARR, and any acceleration — or delay — in that conversion will be the most watched data point on the call.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus implies ~12% YoY net revenue growth and ~6% Non-GAAP EPS growth sequentially; Financial Technology revenue is the bigger swing factor given enterprise deal timing variability, while Index revenue should benefit from the CME fee-tier reset that kicked in at end of Q1.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual

Q2 2026 Consensus

YoY Change

Guidance

Cons. vs. Guidance

Net Revenue (Rev. less transaction-based exp.)

$1,407M

$1,306M

$1,456M

+11.5%

No specific Q2 guidance

N/A

Non-GAAP Diluted EPS

$0.96

$0.85

$0.985

+15.9%

No specific Q2 guidance

N/A

Total Financial Technology Revenue

$517M

$464M

$521M

+12.3%

10–14% medium-term range

~+12% (within range)

Index Licensing & Services Revenue

$220M

$196M

$246M

+25.5%

No specific Q2 guidance

N/A

Total Solutions Revenue

$1,082M

$984M

$1,116M

+13.4%

9–12% medium-term range

~+13% (above range)

Non-GAAP Operating Income

$799M

$721M

$814M

+12.9%

Opex $2.485–$2.545B FY (raised)

Consistent with raised guide

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — Net Revenue, Non-GAAP EPS, Financial Technology Revenue, Index Revenue, Solutions Revenue, Operating Income. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat / Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: (1) Net Revenue (Revenues less transaction-based expenses) | (2) Non-GAAP Diluted EPS

Quarter

Net Rev. Reported

Net Rev. Consensus

Net Rev. Surprise

EPS Reported

EPS Consensus

EPS Surprise

Result

Q3 2024

$1,180M

$1,173M

+0.6%

$0.74

$0.699

+5.9%

Beat / Beat

Q4 2024

$1,227M

$1,228M

-0.1%

$0.76

$0.750

+1.3%

In-line / Beat

Q1 2025

$1,237M

$1,234M

+0.2%

$0.79

$0.772

+2.3%

Beat / Beat

Q2 2025

$1,306M

$1,279M

+2.1%

$0.85

$0.814

+4.4%

Beat / Beat

Q3 2025

$1,315M

$1,304M

+0.8%

$0.88

$0.848

+3.8%

Beat / Beat

Q4 2025

$1,392M

$1,373M

+1.4%

$0.96

$0.916

+4.8%

Beat / Beat

Q1 2026

$1,407M

$1,377M

+2.2%

$0.96

$0.930

+3.2%

Beat / Beat

Q2 2026E

$1,456M

$0.985

Upcoming

Pattern: NDAQ has beaten consensus on both Net Revenue and Non-GAAP EPS in 7 of the last 7 reported quarters, with EPS beats averaging ~3–5% — a consistent track record that has likely been partially priced in by the Street's upward revision trend heading into Q2 2026.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: The only formal guidance change since Q1 earnings was a modest upward revision to FY2026 non-GAAP operating expenses (reflecting strong revenue performance); all other guidance — tax rate, medium-term segment growth ranges, leverage target — was reiterated unchanged. Management tone at June conferences was constructive and confident.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 23)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

FY2026 Non-GAAP Opex

$2.485B – $2.545B (raised from $2.455B–$2.535B at Q1)

Consistent with raised range

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings Apr 23, 2026; reflects strong revenue performance YTD; Q2 opex growth expected higher than Q1 due to annual comp cycle timing

FY2026 Non-GAAP Tax Rate

22.5% – 24.5%

Within range

Unchanged; reiterated at Q1 earnings

Financial Technology Medium-Term Growth

10% – 14% annually (Investor Day Feb 2026)

~12% YoY (within range)

Reiterated at June conferences; management expressed confidence in moving toward higher end of range

Capital Access Platforms Medium-Term Growth

6% – 10% annually (Investor Day Feb 2026)

~13% YoY (above range, driven by Index)

Reiterated at June conferences; Index outperformance driven by CME fee-tier reset and ETP AUM momentum

Total Solutions Revenue Medium-Term Growth

9% – 12% annually (Investor Day Feb 2026)

~13% YoY (above range)

Reiterated; consensus tracking above the top of the range

Gross Leverage Target

Mid-to-high 2x (ended Q1 at 2.8x)

N/A

Reiterated at June conferences; new $1.5B revolving credit facility signed June 30, 2026 (matures 2031)

Cross-Sell Run-Rate Revenue Target

$100M by end-2027 (at $45M run-rate as of Q1)

N/A

Reiterated at all three June conferences; Tier 1 Verafin cross-sell signed early Q2 adds to pipeline

AI Efficiency Savings Target

$100M run-rate expense savings by end-2027

N/A

Reiterated; majority of savings expected in 2027; investments ongoing in 2026

23/5 Trading Launch

December 6, 2026 (confirmed at Q1 earnings)

N/A

Reiterated at all June conferences; consolidated tape also launching simultaneously

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates for both Q2 2026 and FY2026 have drifted steadily higher since the Q1 print — 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS consensus is up ~4.5% from the post-print baseline and net revenue is up ~2.7% — indicating the Street is gaining confidence in the growth trajectory. Estimates are tracking above the top of management’s medium-term guidance ranges for Solutions revenue, suggesting the bar has risen.

KPI (Period)

Estimate Apr 28, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline)

Current Consensus (Jul 22, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Earnings Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Cons. vs. Guidance (%)

Non-GAAP EPS — Q2 2026

$0.943

$0.985

+4.5%

No specific Q2 guidance

No specific Q2 guidance

N/A

N/A

Non-GAAP EPS — FY2026

$3.923

$4.012

+2.3%

No specific FY EPS guidance

No specific FY EPS guidance

N/A

N/A

Net Revenue — Q2 2026

$1,418M

$1,456M

+2.7%

No specific Q2 guidance

No specific Q2 guidance

N/A

N/A

Net Revenue — FY2026

$5,756M

$5,834M

+1.4%

No specific FY revenue guidance

No specific FY revenue guidance

N/A

N/A

Total Financial Technology — Q2 2026

$524M

$521M

-0.6%

10–14% medium-term growth

10–14% medium-term growth (unchanged)

Unchanged

~+12% YoY (within range)

Total Financial Technology — FY2026

$2,130M

$2,125M

-0.2%

10–14% medium-term growth

10–14% medium-term growth (unchanged)

Unchanged

~+12% YoY (within range)

Index Licensing & Services — Q2 2026

$229M

$246M

+7.4%

No specific guidance; CME fee-tier reset flagged as Q2 tailwind

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Non-GAAP Operating Income — Q2 2026

$785M

$814M

+3.7%

FY Opex $2.485–$2.545B; Q2 opex growth higher than Q1

Unchanged

N/A

Consistent with raised FY opex guide

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of April 28, 2026 (5 trading days after the April 23, 2026 earnings release). Current consensus as of July 22, 2026.

Commentary: The most notable revision is in Index Licensing (+7.4% since the post-Q1 baseline), reflecting the CME fee-tier reset that management explicitly flagged as a Q2 tailwind, plus continued ETP AUM momentum with $15B in net inflows as of April 20. Financial Technology estimates are essentially flat since the post-Q1 baseline, suggesting the Street is waiting for evidence of Verafin ARR acceleration before revising higher — this makes FinTech the key swing factor on the call.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: NDAQ has underperformed both the S&P 500 and the KBE financials ETF since Q1 earnings, driven almost entirely by multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA down ~17% over six months) rather than estimate cuts — a setup that could re-rate sharply on a clean beat with positive ARR commentary.

Sector ETF used: KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF) — selected as the closest available proxy for the diversified financial services / exchange operator sub-sector. Note that NDAQ’s business mix (technology platform + exchange) means no single ETF is a perfect match; KBE captures the broader financial infrastructure sentiment.

Performance since Q1 2026 earnings (April 23, 2026 close = 100):

Date

NDAQ (Indexed)

KBE (Indexed)

SPY (Indexed)

Key Event

Apr 23, 2026 (Base)

100.0

100.0

100.0

Q1 2026 Earnings (Beat)

Apr 30, 2026

105.6

100.0

101.4

May 29, 2026

106.3

98.7

106.7

Peak post-earnings

Jun 2, 2026

101.0

98.7

107.2

Piper Sandler / William Blair conferences

Jun 9, 2026

100.6

101.2

103.9

Morgan Stanley Financials Conference

Jun 17, 2026

95.7

101.6

104.5

Shareholder meeting; stock pullback

Jun 25, 2026

89.2

106.2

103.4

Trough; NDAQ -11% from base

Jul 1, 2026

95.1

107.9

105.0

$1.5B revolving credit facility signed

Jul 16, 2026

108.3

111.8

105.7

Post-trough recovery; CME Q2 beat

Jul 21, 2026 (Latest)

104.5

109.0

105.3

Pre-earnings close

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). Indexed to 100 at April 23, 2026 close ($87.04 NDAQ, $64.33 KBE, $708.45 SPY).

Performance Summary: From the Q1 earnings close (Apr 23) through July 21, 2026, NDAQ is +3.7% vs. KBE +7.7% and SPY +5.6%. The stock peaked at ~$92.52 on May 29 before a sharp drawdown to a trough of $76.85 on June 29 (−11.7% from the post-earnings close), driven by broad market rotation and multiple compression rather than any company-specific negative news. The stock has since recovered to ~$90.24 as of July 21. The NTM EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed from ~19.6x six months ago to ~16.2x today, suggesting the stock is now trading at a more attractive entry point relative to its fundamental trajectory. The underperformance vs. KBE is notable given NDAQ’s superior earnings growth profile, and a clean Q2 beat with positive ARR commentary could catalyze a re-rating.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the confirmation of the December 6, 2026 launch date for 23/5 trading, which is driving incremental demand across data, surveillance, Calypso, and trade management services — a multi-segment revenue catalyst that the Street has not yet fully modeled.

7. Peer Commentaries / Read-Through (Last 60 Days, Q2 2026 Focused)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from CME, ICE, and MarketAxess over the last 60 days paints a consistently constructive picture for Q2 2026: record or near-record trading volumes, surging market data revenue, robust demand for fintech and AI-driven solutions, and strong new issuance activity — all of which are direct tailwinds for NDAQ’s Market Services, Information Services, and Financial Technology segments.

Note: Only commentary from the last 60 days (May 22 – July 22, 2026) that addresses the current Q2 2026 reporting period or forward-looking trends is included below. Retrospective commentary about prior-quarter results is excluded.

CME Group (CME) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 22, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: CME is the most direct peer for NDAQ’s Market Services and market data businesses. CME’s Q2 2026 results (reported same day as this preview) provide the most timely and actionable read-through.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference, June 3, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: ICE’s COO commentary on data center demand, AI adoption, and 24/7 trading strategy is directly relevant to NDAQ’s technology platform and always-on markets initiatives.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher’s commentary on retail engagement, IPO dynamics, and private credit data is relevant to NDAQ’s listings and data businesses.

MarketAxess (MKTX) — Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference, June 4, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: MarketAxess’ commentary on new issuance volumes, electronification demand, and AI-driven product delivery is relevant to NDAQ’s Capital Access Platforms and Financial Technology segments.

MarketAxess (MKTX) — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, June 9, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: MKTX’s commentary on portfolio trading growth, block automation, and AI product delivery provides additional color on Q2 market activity.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 earnings is dominated by routine 10b5-1 planned sales and one notable open-market purchase by Investor AB (10% owner), which added 56,782 shares in mid-June — a constructive signal from the largest institutional insider. No discretionary open-market sales by executives stand out as unusual.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Transaction Date

Note

INVESTOR AB

10% Owner

Open Market Buy

56,782

Jun 11, 2026

Discretionary open-market purchase; constructive signal from largest institutional insider; total holdings now 58.4M shares

Smith, Bryan Everard

EVP, Chief People Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

3,000

Jul 1, 2026

Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; routine; 69,203 shares retained

Smith, Bryan Everard

EVP, Chief People Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

3,000

Jun 11, 2026

Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; routine; 71,944 shares retained

Griggs, PC Nelson

President, Capital Access Platforms

Open Market Sale

5,093

May 18, 2026

Discretionary sale; no 10b5-1 plan indicated; 233,798 shares retained; modest relative to holdings

Peterson, Bradley J

EVP, Chief Information Officer

Open Market Sale

7,710

Apr 28, 2026

Discretionary sale shortly after Q1 earnings; no 10b5-1 plan indicated; 141,035 shares retained

Cohen, Tal

President, Market Platforms

Open Market Sale

15,518

Apr 27, 2026

Discretionary sale shortly after Q1 earnings; no 10b5-1 plan indicated; 215,208 shares retained; largest single sale in the period

Daly, Michelle Lynn

SVP, Controller & PAO

Open Market Sale

1,323

Apr 24, 2026

Discretionary sale one day after Q1 earnings; no 10b5-1 plan indicated; 10,089 shares retained; small in absolute terms

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data).

Analysis: The cluster of discretionary executive sales in the days immediately following Q1 earnings (April 24–28) is notable but not alarming — these are common post-earnings window openings and the amounts are modest relative to retained holdings. The most significant signal is Investor AB’s open-market purchase of 56,782 shares on June 11 at prices in the mid-$80s range, representing a meaningful addition to its already substantial 58.4M share position. This purchase occurred during the stock’s drawdown period and suggests the largest institutional insider viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity. No clustered executive buying or unusual sale patterns that would signal concern.