NEE Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NEE Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$1.11 vs. cons ~$1.10 MEDIUM
NEE Report Revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$8.1B vs. cons ~$8.1B LOW
NEE Report New renewables & storage backlog originated (GW) BEAT pred ~4.0 GW vs. cons ~3.5 GW MEDIUM
NEE Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide reaffirmed ~$3.92-$4.02 (high end) vs. cons ~$3.98 (FY2026) HIGH
NEE Guide Long-term 8%+ EPS CAGR through 2032 off $3.71 base UNCHANGED guide ~8%+ CAGR vs. cons ~8% (2025-2032) HIGH
NEE Guide U.S.-Japan 9.5 GW gas deal definitive agreements UNKNOWN guide ~9.5 GW / signed DAs vs. cons ~9.5 GW expected 'next 2-3 months' (2H2026) LOW
NEE Guide FPL large-load tariff first customer signing UNKNOWN guide ~1+ customer (~$2B/GW capex) vs. cons ~1 signed by YE2026 (FY2026) LOW
NEE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% LOW
NEE Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (STABILIZE) Beat-and-reaffirm with reaffirmed high-end FY guide and intact 8%+ CAGR means no implied out-period cuts, so estimates hold. Day-1 pop is driven by ~4 GW backlog and any Japan-deal/FPL large-load progress; absent a signed DA the move is modest and low-beta utility mean-reversion keeps the 5-day residual roughly flat rather than following through. Downside risk is a Japan-deal slip that would fade the initial gain. LOW