Company | NextEra Energy, Inc. |
Ticker | NEE (NYSE) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ending June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 24, 2026 — 9:00 AM ET |
Prepared | July 23, 2026 |
Last Earnings | April 23, 2026 (1Q26) |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus for 2Q26 adjusted EPS sits at ~$1.10, a manageable bar given management's explicit targeting of the high end of the $3.92–$4.02 FY26 range — but the single biggest swing factor is whether NEE can announce at least one signed FPL large-load tariff customer, a milestone management committed to by year-end.
Heading into the 2Q26 print, the bar for NextEra Energy looks achievable but not trivial. Consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.10 implies roughly 5% year-over-year growth versus the $1.05 reported in 2Q25, and management has been unambiguous in targeting the high end of the $3.92–$4.02 FY26 guidance range — a posture that has not wavered since the April earnings call. Estimate revisions have been modestly negative since the post-Q1 spike (from ~$1.11 in late April to ~$1.10 today), suggesting the street has trimmed slightly but not materially, leaving a small cushion rather than a stretched bar. The stock has given back roughly 7% from its post-Q1 surge high near $97 to the current ~$90 level, underperforming both XLU and the S&P 500 since mid-May, largely on dilution concerns tied to the transformative all-stock merger with Dominion Energy announced May 18 — a deal that, if approved, would create the world's largest regulated electric utility. The wildcard for this print is twofold: first, whether management can announce a signed FPL large-load tariff customer (12 GW in advanced discussions, at least one expected by year-end); and second, any update on the US-Japan DOC 9.5 GW gas project definitive agreements, which were expected within 2–3 months of the April call and would represent essentially infinite-return, capital-light fee streams.
Key Takeaway: Consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.10 is a manageable bar with management targeting the high end of FY26 guidance; the bigger swing factor is Energy Resources origination momentum and any FPL large-load tariff signing, which could catalyze upward revisions to the FY26 and FY27 outlook.
KPI | 1Q26 Actual | 2Q25 Actual | 2Q26 Consensus | YoY Change | FY26 Guidance | Consensus vs. |
Adj. EPS — Diluted Operating ($) | $1.09 | $1.05 | $1.10 | +4.8% YoY | $3.92–$4.02 | ~$0.02 below midpoint run-rate; tracking toward high end |
FPL Capital Expenditures ($B) | $10.9B | $5.6B | $6.7B | +21% YoY | $12B–$13B FY26 | Consensus ~$6.7B in 2Q; on track vs. FY guidance |
NEER Renewable Capacity (MW) | 28,883 MW | 25,017 MW | 29,583 MW | +18.2% YoY | ~34.7 GW FY26E | Consensus tracking toward FY target |
FY26 Adj. EPS Consensus ($) | $1.09 (1Q26 actual) | N/A | $4.04 | N/A | $3.92–$4.02 | +0.5% above midpoint; tracking high end |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS — Diluted — Operating, Capital expenditures of FPL, Capacity—Renewable—NEER); NEE 1Q26 Earnings Call (April 23, 2026) for FY26 guidance range and FPL CapEx guidance.
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
1Q26 | $1.09 | $1.03 | +5.8% | Beat |
4Q25 | $0.54 | $0.58 | -6.9% | Miss |
3Q25 | $1.13 | $0.99 | +14.1% | Beat |
2Q25 | $1.05 | $1.01 | +4.0% | Beat |
1Q25 | $0.99 | $0.94 | +5.3% | Beat |
4Q24 | $0.53 | $0.59 | -10.2% | Miss |
3Q24 | $1.03 | $1.04 | -1.0% | In-Line |
2Q24 | $1.05 | $1.01 | +4.0% | Beat |
Pattern: NEE has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with misses concentrated in seasonally weak 4Q prints (4Q24, 4Q25); the three Q2 prints in the trailing history all came in above consensus, suggesting a favorable seasonal setup for the current quarter.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — EPS — Diluted — Operating($).
Key Takeaway: Management's posture has not shifted since the April 23 earnings call — FY26 guidance of $3.92–$4.02 is reaffirmed with an explicit high-end target — but the May 18 Dominion merger announcement introduced a pro forma combined-company EPS framework ($3.92–$4.02 for 2026E on a combined basis) and a raised FPL CapEx range ($12B–$13B vs. prior $10B–$11B), both of which are material post-Q1 developments.
Metric | Initial Guidance | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY26 Adj. EPS | $3.92–$4.02; targeting high end | Reaffirmed at merger announcement (May 18); stand-alone expectations unchanged | $4.04 | Unchanged; management explicitly targeting high end; consensus sits just above midpoint |
FPL Full-Year CapEx | $12B–$13B (raised from prior $10B–$11B at analyst day) | — | ~$30.4B FY26E (full-year VA consensus) | ↑ Raised at 1Q26 earnings; driven by proactive solar panel procurement through 2029 to lock in pre-tariff pricing |
Adj. EPS CAGR Target (through 2032) | 8%+ CAGR off 2025 base of $3.71 | Combined company: 9%+ CAGR through 2032 and 9%+ target through 2035 (merger presentation, May 18) | N/A (long-term target) | ↑ Upgraded at merger announcement; combined entity targets higher CAGR vs. stand-alone |
Dividend Growth | ~10%/yr through 2026; 6%/yr from year-end 2026 through 2028 | Maintained post-merger; combined company retains 6%/yr policy through 2028 | N/A | Unchanged; dividend payout ratio expected below 55% by 2030 |
FPL Large Load Pipeline | 21 GW interest; 12 GW in advanced discussions; ≥1 tariff customer signed by year-end 2026 | — | N/A (operational KPI) | Key watch item for 2Q26 call; each GW ~$2B CapEx equivalent at FPL ROE |
NEER Backlog | ~33 GW (record; 4 GW added in 1Q26) | — | N/A (operational KPI) | Watch for continued origination momentum; 30% hyperscaler-driven, 70% utility customers |
Key Takeaway: 2Q26 EPS estimates peaked at ~$1.13 in the week after the 1Q26 print, then drifted ~2% lower to ~$1.10 as the Dominion dilution overhang weighed on sentiment; FY26 estimates have been remarkably stable at ~$4.03–$4.04, sitting just above the guidance midpoint and consistent with management's high-end targeting posture.
KPI (Period) | Estimate | Current | Estimate | Initial Guidance | Current | Guidance | Consensus vs. |
Adj. EPS — 2Q26 | $1.126 | $1.101 | -2.2% | No specific Q guidance | No specific Q guidance | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EPS — FY26 | $4.031 | $4.035 | +0.1% | $3.92–$4.02 | Unchanged | Unchanged | +0.3% above midpoint; +0.1% vs. high end |
The revision trajectory tells a clear story: the 1Q26 beat drove an immediate ~$0.02 upward revision to 2Q26 estimates (from ~$1.11 pre-print to ~$1.13 in the first week post-print), but the Dominion merger announcement on May 18 introduced dilution uncertainty that pushed estimates back down to the ~$1.10 level, where they have stabilized. FY26 estimates have been essentially flat since the print, hovering just above the guidance midpoint and consistent with management's high-end targeting posture — a gap that represents modest cushion rather than risk.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — EPS — Diluted — Operating($); revision history table (weekly, Apr 24 – Jul 23, 2026).
Key Takeaway: NEE surged ~7% on the 1Q26 print (April 23) but has since given back most of those gains, underperforming XLU by ~5% and the S&P 500 by ~10% since earnings, driven primarily by Dominion merger dilution concerns and multiple compression rather than any deterioration in the underlying business.
Since the April 23, 2026 earnings date (base = $90.00), NEE peaked near $97.88 on April 30 before declining to the $83–$90 range through mid-July. The stock's underperformance vs. XLU (the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, the most appropriate sector benchmark for NEE's regulated utility and contracted renewables mix) is almost entirely attributable to the May 18 Dominion merger announcement, which introduced ~25% share dilution and triggered a re-rating of the standalone growth premium. The S&P 500 has continued to grind higher over the same period, widening the relative gap. As of July 22, NEE closed at $89.41, approximately -0.7% vs. the April 23 close, while XLU is +2.3% and SPY is +5.1% over the same window. The 12-month performance (+15.8%) remains strong and has been driven by a combination of EPS growth (~6.6% multiple expansion) and earnings growth, consistent with the stock performance decomposition data.
Material Events Since Last Earnings (annotated on chart):
Date | NEE (Indexed) | XLU (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 23 (base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Apr 30 | 101.7 | 101.7 | 101.4 |
May 18 (Merger) | 92.6 | 95.3 | 104.1 |
Jun 1 | 87.0 | 93.5 | 106.9 |
Jun 22 (Debt Issuance) | 89.5 | 97.0 | 104.9 |
Jul 8 (Bylaws) | 90.9 | 98.4 | 105.0 |
Jul 22 (latest) | 93.0 | 102.3 | 105.1 |
Note: Indexed to 100 at April 23, 2026 close. XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF) is the appropriate sector benchmark for NEE given its regulated utility and contracted renewables business mix. Source: Stock Price Data.
Performance Decomposition (NTM EV/EBITDA basis): Over the trailing 12 months, NEE's +15.8% total return has been driven by a combination of ~+4.6% multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA from 14.5x to 15.2x) and underlying earnings/cash flow growth. Over the past 3 months, the stock is essentially flat (-0.2%) with a slight multiple contraction (-1.3%), consistent with the Dominion dilution overhang. The current NTM P/E of ~21x remains at a meaningful premium to the utility sector average (~low 20s), reflecting the market's willingness to pay for NEE's superior growth profile and data center optionality.
Key Takeaway: The dominant development since 1Q26 earnings is the transformative all-stock merger with Dominion Energy (announced May 18), which reshapes NEE's long-term growth profile but introduces near-term dilution and regulatory approval uncertainty; the $3.75B junior subordinated debenture issuance in June signals active balance sheet management ahead of the deal.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the current reporting quarter (2Q26) is uniformly bullish on data center load growth and the economics of serving hyperscalers — validating NEE's core thesis — while GEV's 2Q26 earnings call highlights both the strength of power equipment demand and the ongoing softness in US onshore wind that could weigh on NEER's wind origination.
Note: Only forward-looking commentary made during or after each peer's most recent earnings (i.e., commentary about the current reporting quarter or the future) is included below. Retrospective discussion of prior-quarter results is excluded.
Theme: Power Equipment Demand & Supply Chain
GEV CEO Scott Strazik stated that the “long cycle electric power industry is in the early stages of a multi-decade growth opportunity” and that “electricity demand is accelerating, driven by economic growth, grid modernization, electrification, data center expansion, and the need for more reliable, resilient power.” GEV booked $2.7B of data center orders in electrification in 2Q26 alone, bringing total segment data center orders to over $5B in the first half of 2026 — more than double full-year 2025. Gas power equipment orders in 1H26 were priced more than 20% above 4Q25 levels, with service orders rising double digits annually. GEV raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5B–$46.5B (up $1B) and dramatically raised free cash flow guidance to $11.5B–$12.5B (from $6.5B–$7.5B). GEV is now “mostly sold out through 2030” on gas turbines and expects to reach 30 GW of annual output by 2030.
NEE Read-Through: Strongly positive for NEE's power demand thesis. GEV's sold-out gas turbine backlog through 2030 validates NEE's strategy of securing turbine slots early and positions NEE's supply chain advantage as a genuine competitive moat. However, the 20%+ price escalation in gas equipment implies higher CapEx for NEE's gas-fired generation development pipeline. The ongoing weakness in US onshore wind (“organic revenue down low double digits”; EBITDA losses of ~$400M in 2026 due to “permitting delays and tariff uncertainty”) is a direct headwind for NEER's wind origination and could pressure the wind component of NEE's 33 GW backlog.
Theme: US Onshore Wind Softness
GEV noted the “US market for new onshore equipment remains soft” due to “permitting delays and tariff uncertainty,” making it “difficult to call an inflection point in U.S. orders.” However, GEV expects an inflection point in 2H26 where “orders in backlog will be greater than gigawatts on slot reservation agreement” as customers convert slot reservations to firm orders.
NEE Read-Through: Cautionary for NEER's wind segment. Permitting delays and tariff uncertainty are industry-wide constraints, not NEE-specific, but they could slow the conversion of NEE's wind backlog to revenue. The expected 2H26 inflection in order conversion is a potential positive catalyst for NEE's wind origination in the back half of the year.
Theme: Data Center Pipeline Quality & Pricing Framework
PG&E reported its data center pipeline now stands at over 12 GW (up from 10 GW disclosed last quarter), with the company emphasizing “quality over size” by raising the threshold for inclusion in final engineering stages and requiring a work performance agreement (typically ~10% of project costs) as a prerequisite. PCG expects “about 1.8 GW to be online by 2030.” On pricing, PCG stated it is “very focused on pricing this load correctly, attractive to data center customers but still rate reducing for our other customers,” noting that “if you get the pricing right” each GW of new load translates to a 1% rate reduction for existing customers. PCG reaffirmed full-year 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64–$1.66 (midpoint +10% vs. 2025) and its $73B five-year capital plan through 2030.
NEE Read-Through: Positive for NEE's FPL large-load tariff strategy. PCG's experience confirms that a well-structured pricing framework (where data center customers pay their full share of infrastructure costs) can be simultaneously attractive to hyperscalers and rate-reducing for existing customers — exactly the model FPL has implemented. PCG's 12 GW pipeline and 1.8 GW expected online by 2030 is directionally consistent with FPL's 21 GW of interest and 12 GW in advanced discussions, validating the scale of the opportunity. PCG's reaffirmed guidance and capital plan signal that large-load growth is not disrupting utility financial frameworks.
Theme: AI & Grid Modernization Investment
PCG highlighted its use of AI for wildfire prediction, meteorology, and smart meter fault detection, noting that its continuous monitoring system has helped avoid “nearly 20 million outage minutes” and “28 ignitions in high fire risk areas” since January 2025. PCG is “in pursuit of the first completely predictive electric grid.”
NEE Read-Through: Directionally consistent with NEE's REWIRE initiative and Google Cloud partnership. The industry-wide adoption of AI for grid operations validates NEE's investment in AI-powered tools (Conduit, Generation Entitlement, Grid Composer) and its Nvidia collaboration on dispatchable data centers. These investments are increasingly table stakes for large utilities.
Theme: Data Center Demand & NEE Partnership Confirmation
Xcel CEO Bob Frenzel confirmed that “data centers are driving electricity demand both this decade” and “we even see more growth into next decade with our large data center customers.” Xcel raised its five-year capital plan by 33% to $60 billion to build “a more modern, more resilient, more sustainable grid.” Critically, Frenzel confirmed the joint development agreement with NextEra Energy to “build wind and solar battery resources to serve data centers across our eight states,” and stated that the potential NEE-Dominion merger “is not going to affect our journey” in the partnership. Xcel's Google deal (750 MW in Minnesota) requires Google to “pay for all of their infrastructure costs” and “the full rate of their transmission usage,” which Xcel projects will “save our customers $1 to $1.5 billion over a 15-year period.”
NEE Read-Through: Directly positive for NEE. Xcel's confirmation of the JDA and its durability through the Dominion merger process is a concrete near-term revenue opportunity for NEER. The Xcel-Google pricing model (hyperscaler pays full infrastructure costs, saving existing customers money) is the same framework FPL is implementing, providing regulatory precedent and validation. Xcel's $60B capital plan expansion signals that the industry-wide investment cycle is accelerating, supporting NEE's own capital deployment thesis.
Theme: Hyperscale Load Growth & Fair Share Contracting
Entergy CEO Drew Marsh disclosed that its electric service agreement backlog has “grown by nearly double” in the last two years, with a “24-month ESA outlook” of 7–12 GW for data centers and 3–5 GW for other industries. Entergy projects retail sales growth to “more than double over the next 5 years” and expects to “triple our sales growth from 2025 by 2050.” Meta's VP of Energy confirmed a $50B investment in a 5 GW data center campus in Richland Parish, Louisiana — the largest private data center project in the US. AWS confirmed continued expansion beyond its Vicksburg announcement. Entergy's “Fair Share Plus” pledge requires data center customers to “cover the incremental costs associated with serving them” plus “pick up their share of fixed costs,” projected to save existing customers $7 billion over the 15–20-year contract lives. Entergy doubled its 5-year capital plan to $67B ($13B/year average) and projects a rate base of $97B by 2030 (16% CAGR from 2025).
NEE Read-Through: Highly positive for NEE's data center thesis. The scale of hyperscaler investment (Meta's $50B, 5 GW campus) confirms that the demand is real, large, and accelerating. Entergy's Fair Share Plus framework is structurally identical to FPL's large-load tariff approach, providing regulatory and commercial validation. The doubling of Entergy's capital plan to $67B is a sector-wide signal that utilities with constructive regulatory environments and large-load pipelines are entering a historic capital deployment cycle — exactly the narrative NEE has been articulating. The 15–20-year contract lengths with minimum bills and credit provisions are the same contract structure NEER uses for its Energy Resources backlog.
Theme: New Nuclear & CCS Optionality
Entergy announced an MOU with Mitsubishi to reduce carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) costs, targeting a 50% cost reduction by the eighth unit. Meta's VP confirmed interest in “SMRs, Gen 4 technologies, solar and battery integration.” Entergy CEO noted “we’re still a long way from regulatory constructs” for new nuclear.
NEE Read-Through: Consistent with NEE's own nuclear strategy (Gen 3 SMR preference, ‘four wallets’ cost-sharing framework). Entergy's cautious stance on new nuclear regulatory constructs mirrors NEE's position that new nuclear requires a non-negotiable cost-sharing framework before commitment. The hyperscaler interest in SMRs validates NEE's nuclear recontracting and new build optionality as a differentiated asset.
Theme: Ratepayer Protection Model & Data Center Rate Design
Georgia Governor Kemp described Georgia's rate structure for data centers as “unlike any other model in the country,” where large tech customers “pay for that build out and tying that into rates long term,” enabling Georgia Power to lower residential rates by $5–$6/month as the data center build-out continues. He called proposals to “freeze construction” of data centers “irresponsible,” noting that Georgia is “one of the fastest growing markets when it comes to data centers” and that its grid is “very prepared.” Southern Company is estimating power demand growth of 8–10% annually driven by AI build-out.
NEE Read-Through: Positive for NEE's regulatory positioning. Georgia's model — where data center customers fund their own infrastructure and existing customers benefit through lower rates — is the same framework FPL has implemented and is seeking to expand. The political support from a Republican governor for aggressive data center development (and opposition to construction freezes) is relevant given Florida's similar political environment under Gov. DeSantis, who signed a law preventing utilities from passing data center costs to residential customers. This regulatory tailwind supports FPL's large-load tariff strategy.