| NEM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.12 vs. cons $2.00 |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Report |
Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$6.3B vs. cons $6.25B |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Report |
Gold by-product AISC (cost; miss = higher) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1,620/oz vs. cons ~$1,600/oz |
LOW |
| NEM |
Guide |
FY2026 attributable gold production guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5.3 Moz vs. cons ~5.3 Moz (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Guide |
FY2026 gold by-product AISC guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1,680/oz vs. cons ~$1,680/oz (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Guide |
Quarterly capital return / buyback pace |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.3B repurchase vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q2 2026) |
LOW |
| NEM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| NEM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
A modest EPS beat plus a reaffirmed 5.3 Moz / $1,680 AISC full-year guide gives an initial pop, but the beat is powered by a still-elevated ~$4,700 realized gold price that has since retraced to ~$4,050 spot. Out-period math is negative: lower spot pulls H2 estimates down even after a Q2 beat, Q2 is the designed 'trough' (higher costs, lower silver by-product credits, Ghana royalty, higher oil), and the stock already ran +7% (89.20->95.77) into the print. That combination fades most of the day-1 idiosyncratic gain back toward flat, with residual direction thereafter dominated by gold rather than the print. |
LOW |