{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.12 vs. cons $2.00",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.3B vs. cons $6.25B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gold by-product AISC (cost; miss = higher)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,620/oz vs. cons ~$1,600/oz",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 attributable gold production guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.3 Moz vs. cons ~5.3 Moz (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 gold by-product AISC guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,680/oz vs. cons ~$1,680/oz (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Quarterly capital return / buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.3B repurchase vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS beat plus a reaffirmed 5.3 Moz / $1,680 AISC full-year guide gives an initial pop, but the beat is powered by a still-elevated ~$4,700 realized gold price that has since retraced to ~$4,050 spot. Out-period math is negative: lower spot pulls H2 estimates down even after a Q2 beat, Q2 is the designed 'trough' (higher costs, lower silver by-product credits, Ghana royalty, higher oil), and the stock already ran +7% (89.20->95.77) into the print. That combination fades most of the day-1 idiosyncratic gain back toward flat, with residual direction thereafter dominated by gold rather than the print.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}