I'll research NEM (Newmont) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, news, and price data.Let me read NEM's most recent earnings materials and pull price data plus gold market context.Let me get management's tone from the Q1 call and check current gold/analyst context.Let me compute some price statistics to ground the preview.# Newmont (NEM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Newmont enters this print coming off an all-time record quarter, but management has explicitly pre-warned that Q2 is the designed "trough" — lower volumes, higher costs, and a sequentially lower gold price. Expect a step down from Q1's blowout, and focus less on the headline miss/beat than on (1) whether full-year guidance holds, (2) the pace of capital returns, and (3) three open governance/operational overhangs: the Cadia earthquake recovery, the Nevada Gold Mines dispute with Barrick, and the still-vacant permanent CFO seat.
Newmont's Q1 was a genuine blowout: - Attributable production 1.30 Moz gold (plus 9 Moz silver, 30 kt copper) - Realized gold $4,900/oz; by-product AISC just $1,029/oz - Adjusted EPS $2.90; Adjusted EBITDA $5.2B - Record free cash flow of $3.1B; net cash position of $3.2B ($8.8B cash, $12.8B liquidity) - Returned $2.7B to holders (buybacks + dividend); Board added a new $6.0B repurchase authorization after exhausting the prior $6.0B program
The Q1 cost print was flattered by timing (low sustaining capital), unusually strong silver/copper by-product credits, and disciplined CAS. Management was clear those tailwinds unwind in Q2.
On the April call and in the release, Newmont guided Q2 specifically: - Production slightly below Q1 — roughly 23% of the full-year 5.3 Moz (~1.21–1.25 Moz). H1 is skewed to ~48% of the year, with a stronger H2. - AISC notably higher and "more in line with" the full-year guide of ~$1,680/oz (vs. $1,029 in Q1), driven by: - Ramp-up in sustaining capital (tailings at Cadia/Boddington; summer works at Brucejack/Red Chris; mobile-equipment deliveries) - Higher CAS at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Peñasquito - Lower silver production (Peñasquito processing organic carbon), reducing by-product credits - A full quarter of the higher Ghana sliding-scale royalty (~$25/oz total-company headwind) - Higher oil prices (~$12/oz AISC per $10/bbl Brent move; diesel is ~6% of direct costs) - Development capital rising as Cerro Negro expansion, Red Chris feasibility and the Lihir Nearshore Barrier ramp — full-year $1.4B remains H2-weighted.
Net: even holding gold flat, Q2 EPS and FCF should decline sequentially from the record. The key question is by how much, and whether costs stay inside the +/-5% guidance band.
1. Full-year 2026 guidance — reaffirm or wobble? Guidance is 5.26 Moz attributable at $1,680/oz AISC (built on a $4,500/oz gold, $70/bbl Brent assumption). Watch two pressure points: (a) oil is running well above $70 amid the renewed Middle East conflict (Brent spiked toward ~$95), and (b) the Ghana royalty. Management insists these are offsettable via productivity; any hint of cost guidance risk would matter more than the quarterly number.
2. Cadia earthquake recovery. A magnitude-4.5 quake hit near Cadia on April 14. Management said surface infrastructure (including tailings) was undamaged, targeted a return to 80% capacity within ~5 weeks and full capacity by end of Q2. Look for confirmation that Cadia is back to normal entering Q3 — Cadia is a linchpin of the H2 production ramp and a key low-cost, copper-credit asset.
3. Nevada Gold Mines / Barrick dispute. Newmont (38.5% owner; Barrick operates) issued a notice of default in February over alleged mismanagement/diversion of resources at the JV. Management described an open-ended, "iterative" process with a range of possible remedies, and continues to seek information on the adjacent Fourmile deposit. NGM production fell 19% q/q in Q1. Any update on resolution timeline, audit findings, or a path on Fourmile is a real catalyst/risk.
4. Capital returns cadence. Newmont repurchased $1.9B in Q1 alone and refreshed a $6.0B authorization. With the balance sheet in a net-cash position, the buyback pace is the primary lever for per-share value (management noted FCF/share is already ~6% higher post-buybacks). Watch the quarterly repurchase run-rate and the $0.26 dividend. A lower gold price trims "excess cash," so the buyback pace is a sentiment tell.
5. CFO search and 2027 visibility. Peter Wexler remains interim CFO (also Chief Legal Officer); management said a permanent hire announcement should come "soon." Separately, 2026 is framed as the production trough, with Lihir, Cadia (new caves), Boddington, Ahafo North, Cerro Negro and Yanacocha rebuilding toward ~6 Moz. Any move to reinstate multi-year guidance or an early read on 2027 would be well received.
This is likely a "good quarter that looks worse than Q1" print. The record was always going to be a tough comp: gold has come off its January peak, silver credits normalize, sustaining capital ramps, Cadia lost mill feed, and Ghana/oil add cost. The bull case rests on (a) guidance holding despite oil, (b) an aggressive, sustained buyback that compounds per-share metrics through a lower-but-still-huge gold price, and (c) constructive updates on Cadia, NGM/Barrick and the CFO seat. The bear case is cost creep breaching the guidance band and continued gold-price mean reversion compressing the free-cash-flow engine. With the stock ~27% off its highs, expectations have already reset lower — making the narrative around guidance and capital returns more important than the sequential EPS decline everyone should be modeling.
Note: All figures reflect Newmont's Q1 2026 results/commentary and market data through 7/22/2026; consensus estimates for the quarter were not available in the sources reviewed, so I've framed the setup off company guidance and price action rather than a specific Street EPS number.