NEM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NEM Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.08 MEDIUM
NEM Report Revenue MISS pred ~$6.05B vs. cons $6.25B MEDIUM
NEM Report Gold By-Product AISC ($/oz) BEAT pred ~$1,320/oz vs. cons $1,420/oz LOW
NEM Guide FY2026 attributable gold production guidance UNCHANGED guide ~5.26M oz vs. cons 5.26M oz (FY2026) HIGH
NEM Guide FY2026 AISC guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$1,680/oz vs. cons $1,680/oz (FY2026) MEDIUM
NEM Guide Q3 average realized gold price / Cadia ramp commentary LOWER guide ~$4,150/oz vs. cons $4,350/oz (Q3 2026) LOW
NEM Guide Q2 share buyback pace BETTER guide ~$1.8B vs. cons $1.3B (Q2 2026) LOW
NEM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
NEM Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (FADE) Consensus EPS already fell 12-14% over the past 30-90 days heading into the print, showing the Street has pre-adjusted for Cadia/cost pressure; a modest EPS beat (driven mainly by still-elevated YoY gold price and cost discipline) plus reaffirmed FY guidance is unlikely to trigger fresh upward revisions given revenue/production softness and the explicitly guided sequential AISC step-up (sustaining capex ramp, Ghana royalty, oil costs). With NEM shares already up ~7% into the print on gold's bounce and heavy Strong Buy positioning, the initial pop from the beat/buyback narrative should fade over the following days as analysts push out-period (Q3/Q4) cost and production assumptions modestly lower, consistent with the 'trough year' framing and unresolved NGM/Barrick and Ghana contractor issues. MEDIUM