{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.08",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.05B vs. cons $6.25B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gold By-Product AISC ($/oz)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,320/oz vs. cons $1,420/oz",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 attributable gold production guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.26M oz vs. cons 5.26M oz (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 AISC guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,680/oz vs. cons $1,680/oz (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 average realized gold price / Cadia ramp commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4,150/oz vs. cons $4,350/oz (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 share buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.8B vs. cons $1.3B (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Consensus EPS already fell 12-14% over the past 30-90 days heading into the print, showing the Street has pre-adjusted for Cadia/cost pressure; a modest EPS beat (driven mainly by still-elevated YoY gold price and cost discipline) plus reaffirmed FY guidance is unlikely to trigger fresh upward revisions given revenue/production softness and the explicitly guided sequential AISC step-up (sustaining capex ramp, Ghana royalty, oil costs). With NEM shares already up ~7% into the print on gold's bounce and heavy Strong Buy positioning, the initial pop from the beat/buyback narrative should fade over the following days as analysts push out-period (Q3/Q4) cost and production assumptions modestly lower, consistent with the 'trough year' framing and unresolved NGM/Barrick and Ghana contractor issues.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}