Reports: Thursday, July 23, 2026, after market close | Conference call: 5:30 p.m. ET
Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, reports second-quarter results tomorrow following a first quarter that produced record free cash flow but was immediately overshadowed by a major operational disruption and one of the sharpest gold price reversals in years. Here's what matters heading into the print.
Gold's 2026 has been a rollercoaster. The metal hit an all-time high of $5,608.35 per ounce in January 2026, then crashed into a bear market in June, tumbling more than 25% from record highs despite persistent inflation and Middle East conflict — factors that would historically be expected to support safe-haven demand. By mid-July, spot gold was trading closer to $4,010 per ounce as of July 20, 2026, well off the highs but still up substantially year-over-year. Research from the World Gold Council shows a clear east-west divergence underlying the pullback: Q2 saw the gold price recede significantly from the record highs achieved in the first quarter, with the gold price retreating to the $4,000 level in Q2 as the market experienced significant volatility, even as Asian physical demand (China, India, central banks) remained robust while Western ETF flows turned choppy.
NEM shares have tracked this volatility almost tick-for-tick: the stock dropped 14.9% in June, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, erasing early-year momentum and leaving the stock up only about 10% in the first half of 2026. Our own pricing data shows NEM ran from ~$101 in early January to a 2026 high near $132 in late January, then ground down to the low $90s by mid-July before a modest bounce into the print (closing $95.77 on July 22). Estimate revisions ahead of the print have leaned negative: estimate revisions have turned more cautious, with more downward than upward adjustments for both EPS and revenue, even though Newmont has a strong record of beating estimates and analysts remain bullish overall.
Newmont's first quarter was a blowout on the financial line but showed early signs of the operational trough management has been guiding to all year. Newmont produced 1.301 million attributable gold ounces (down 10% sequentially and ~16% year-over-year), but benefited from a record $4,900/oz average realized gold price, favorable by-product silver and copper contributions, and disciplined cost control. The result: gold by-product AISC of just $1,029/oz (well below the ~$1,680/oz full-year guide), adjusted EPS of $2.90, adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion, and an all-time-record $3.1 billion of quarterly free cash flow — even after roughly $1.3 billion of cash tax payments. The balance sheet ended the quarter with $8.8 billion of cash and a $3.2 billion net cash position.
Capital returns were aggressive: Newmont fully exhausted its prior $6 billion buyback authorization (repurchasing $2.4 billion of stock since the Q4 call) and its board approved a fresh $6 billion program — the fourth authorization since February 2024 — on top of a steady $0.26/share quarterly dividend.
The single biggest operational overhang for this print is the magnitude-4.5 earthquake that struck near Newmont's Cadia operation in Australia on April 14. Management said there were no injuries and no damage to tailings facilities or surface infrastructure, but underground rehabilitation was expected to take about five weeks, with a return to 80% operating capacity followed by full capacity by the end of Q2. Management explicitly flagged that "second quarter production at Cadia is expected to be lower due to a short gap in mill feed," with a return to normal levels only beginning in Q3. Investors should watch closely for confirmation that Cadia is fully back online and whether any incremental costs or delays emerged during the repair process.
Layered on top of Cadia, management guided to Q2 production "slightly below" Q1 levels (roughly 23% of full-year production), with unit costs "notably higher than the first quarter" due to a ramp in sustaining capital spend (heavier at Brucejack, Red Chris, Cadia and Boddington), lower silver output at Peñasquito during an organic-carbon ore period, and cost pressure at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Peñasquito.
Three specific cost items deserve attention on the call:
Wall Street modeling has been somewhat inconsistent across data providers heading into the print, but converges around:
Sentiment among sell-side analysts remains constructive: coverage is skewed heavily toward Buy/Strong Buy ratings, with average price targets in the $136–$143 range (some methodologies citing highs near $177), even as valuation has compressed — Newmont's trailing P/E of roughly 12.4x sits near its one-year low.
Context that should temper reactions to any single-quarter production miss: management has been explicit that 2026 is a deliberate production trough (guided to ~5.26 million attributable ounces, down from 5.89 million in 2025) as Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and several managed sites transition through mine sequencing, with AISC guided up sharply to ~$1,680/oz from $1,358/oz in 2025. On the Q1 call, CEO Natascha Viljoen confirmed this framing directly, pointing to Lihir moving into higher-grade zones, new caves ramping at Cadia, Boddington pushbacks, Ahafo North's ramp-up, and Cerro Negro productivity work as the "early movers" that should drive production back toward 6 million ounces in 2027 and beyond. Watch for any commentary on multi-year guidance, given analysts have been pressing management to reinstate 3-year guidance.
Even with commodity-price and cost noise, Newmont's enhanced capital allocation framework (introduced in February 2026) has been the more durable story: sustaining capital and a fixed ~$1.1 billion/year dividend get funded first, followed by development capital, a $1 billion (+/- $2 billion) net cash target, and then ratable share buybacks. Management has now authorized four separate repurchase programs since February 2024 totaling $18 billion, and highlighted that free cash flow per share is already running about 6% higher than it would be absent the buyback program. With gold prices well above the $4,500/oz planning assumption embedded in 2026 guidance for most of H1, Newmont should still be generating outsized free cash flow even with a softer production quarter — the pace of Q2 buybacks and any dividend commentary will be a key read-through.
Newmont enters this print from a position of financial strength — record cash generation, a net cash balance sheet, and an unusually aggressive capital return program — but against a backdrop of a sharply cooling gold price, a self-guided production/cost trough, an unresolved joint-venture dispute with Barrick, and fresh input-cost risk from Middle East-driven oil prices. The stock's 2026 pattern (sharp January rally, brutal June drawdown) suggests the market is trading Newmont increasingly as a levered call on the gold price itself; a Q2 print that reassures on costs, confirms Cadia's recovery, and shows continued buyback discipline could stabilize sentiment, while any fresh cost surprise or NGM escalation would likely compound the recent de-rating.