NEM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NEM Report Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$2.14 vs. cons $2.18 MEDIUM
NEM Report Attributable gold production MISS pred ~1.19 Moz vs. cons 1.21 Moz MEDIUM
NEM Report Gold by-product AISC MISS pred ~$1,790/oz vs. cons $1,725/oz MEDIUM
NEM Guide Attributable gold production guidance UNCHANGED guide ~5.26 Moz vs. cons 5.26 Moz (FY2026) MEDIUM
NEM Guide Gold by-product AISC guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$1,680/oz vs. cons $1,680/oz (FY2026) MEDIUM
NEM Guide Sustaining capital guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$1.95B vs. cons $1.95B (FY2026) HIGH
NEM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.2% MEDIUM
NEM Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Higher Q2 AISC (~$1,790/oz vs. $1,725/oz) and lower production (~1.19 Moz vs. 1.21 Moz) should reduce FY2026-FY2027 estimates despite unchanged headline guidance; the heavier H2 production requirement also raises execution risk and sustains negative revisions. MEDIUM