| NEM |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.18 |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Report |
Gold by-product AISC |
MISS |
pred ~$1,620/oz vs. cons ~$1,570/oz |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Report |
Free cash flow |
MISS |
pred ~$2.05bn vs. cons ~$2.18bn |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Guide |
FY26 attributable gold production |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5.26Moz vs. cons 5.25Moz (FY26) |
HIGH |
| NEM |
Guide |
FY26 gold by-product AISC |
LOWER |
guide ~$1,710/oz vs. cons ~$1,680/oz (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Guide |
FY26 sustaining capital |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.95bn vs. cons ~$1.95bn (FY26) |
HIGH |
| NEM |
Guide |
Cadia operating-capacity recovery |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~100% capacity vs. cons ~100% capacity (3Q26 exit) |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| NEM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Day-1 residual ~-2.8% vs. a 0.0% S&P 500 benchmark; 5-day residual ~-4.5% vs. a 0.0% benchmark. The EPS/FCF shortfall is likely treated as more than a seasonal 2Q trough if FY26 AISC moves to roughly $1,710/oz from ~$1,680/oz, because that implies modest downward FY26 and 2027 free-cash-flow revisions despite production guidance near 5.26Moz. |
MEDIUM |