NEM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NEM Report Adjusted diluted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.18 MEDIUM
NEM Report Gold by-product AISC MISS pred ~$1,620/oz vs. cons ~$1,570/oz MEDIUM
NEM Report Free cash flow MISS pred ~$2.05bn vs. cons ~$2.18bn MEDIUM
NEM Guide FY26 attributable gold production UNCHANGED guide ~5.26Moz vs. cons 5.25Moz (FY26) HIGH
NEM Guide FY26 gold by-product AISC LOWER guide ~$1,710/oz vs. cons ~$1,680/oz (FY26) MEDIUM
NEM Guide FY26 sustaining capital UNCHANGED guide ~$1.95bn vs. cons ~$1.95bn (FY26) HIGH
NEM Guide Cadia operating-capacity recovery UNCHANGED guide ~100% capacity vs. cons ~100% capacity (3Q26 exit) MEDIUM
NEM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
NEM Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Day-1 residual ~-2.8% vs. a 0.0% S&P 500 benchmark; 5-day residual ~-4.5% vs. a 0.0% benchmark. The EPS/FCF shortfall is likely treated as more than a seasonal 2Q trough if FY26 AISC moves to roughly $1,710/oz from ~$1,680/oz, because that implies modest downward FY26 and 2027 free-cash-flow revisions despite production guidance near 5.26Moz. MEDIUM