{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.18",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gold by-product AISC",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,620/oz vs. cons ~$1,570/oz",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Free cash flow",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.05bn vs. cons ~$2.18bn",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 attributable gold production",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.26Moz vs. cons 5.25Moz (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 gold by-product AISC",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,710/oz vs. cons ~$1,680/oz (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 sustaining capital",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.95bn vs. cons ~$1.95bn (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cadia operating-capacity recovery",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~100% capacity vs. cons ~100% capacity (3Q26 exit)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Day-1 residual ~-2.8% vs. a 0.0% S&P 500 benchmark; 5-day residual ~-4.5% vs. a 0.0% benchmark. The EPS/FCF shortfall is likely treated as more than a seasonal 2Q trough if FY26 AISC moves to roughly $1,710/oz from ~$1,680/oz, because that implies modest downward FY26 and 2027 free-cash-flow revisions despite production guidance near 5.26Moz.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}