Newmont Corporation (NEM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is constructive for a beat — consensus has been revised meaningfully lower since Q1 earnings, the gold price tailwind is powerful, and NEM's Q1 outperformance provides a cushion; the single biggest swing factor is AISC, which management guided would step up sharply in Q2 from the record-low Q1 print.

Heading into Q2 2026 results, the bar for Newmont looks achievable: consensus EPS of $1.94 sits roughly 8% below the post-Q1 baseline of $2.12, and revenue estimates have been trimmed by ~4.5% to $6.27B, reflecting the Cadia earthquake disruption and a planned step-up in sustaining capital. Management was explicit on the Q1 call that AISC would be notably higher in Q2 — guided back toward the full-year range of ~$1,510/oz after the anomalously low $1,029/oz Q1 print — so the cost line is the key variable to watch. The gold price environment remains exceptionally supportive (spot well above the company’s planning assumptions), and NEM’s new $6B buyback authorization signals management confidence in sustained free cash flow generation. The stock has underperformed GDX by roughly 3 percentage points since Q1 earnings (NEM −13.8% vs. GDX −16.8%), suggesting the sector-wide gold equity selloff has been the dominant driver rather than NEM-specific disappointment, and the stock does not appear to have priced in a beat. The key wildcard is Cadia recovery progress: management guided for 80% operating capacity by end of Q2 with full recovery in Q3, and any deviation — positive or negative — will drive the stock reaction given Cadia’s outsized contribution to group gold and copper production.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a relatively low bar on EPS and revenue after post-Q1 estimate cuts; AISC is the bigger swing factor — the Q1 beat was driven by anomalously low costs that will not repeat, and the market will focus on whether Q2 AISC lands within the full-year guidance corridor.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. AISC Q2 2026 consensus of $1,776/oz reflects the planned step-up from Q1’s anomalously low $1,029/oz (driven by record silver/copper co-product credits and low sustaining capex). The YoY increase in AISC is primarily driven by higher royalties linked to elevated gold prices, ramp-up in sustaining capital, and lower silver production. Gold production YoY decline reflects Cadia earthquake disruption and mine sequencing at Peñasquito, Yanacocha, and Ahafo South.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Pattern: NEM has beaten EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters (the sole miss was Q3 2024 during the Newcrest integration period), with an average EPS beat of ~20%+ in the last five quarters — a strong track record that sets a high bar for the market’s reaction even if Q2 beats modestly. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Full-year guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call; the only post-earnings development is the June 15 leadership overhaul (new CFO, COO, and CTO all effective July 1), which introduces modest execution uncertainty but management framed as a planned succession from internal talent.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been revised meaningfully lower since Q1 earnings across all KPIs — Q2 EPS down ~8.5%, revenue down ~4.5%, FCF down ~11% — creating a lower bar that NEM’s beat track record suggests it can clear; FY 2026 estimates have also been trimmed, suggesting the street is building in more conservatism than management’s unchanged guidance implies.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. The broad-based downward revision to estimates since Q1 earnings reflects: (1) Cadia earthquake impact on Q2 production and costs; (2) planned step-up in sustaining capital; (3) lower silver co-product credits vs. Q1’s exceptional level. The gap between current consensus and management’s unchanged FY guidance suggests the street is more cautious than management on H2 recovery — a potential source of upside if Cadia ramps as guided.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: NEM has declined 13.8% since Q1 earnings vs. GDX down 16.8% — NEM has actually outperformed the gold miners ETF by ~3 percentage points, suggesting the selloff is sector-driven (gold equity de-rating) rather than NEM-specific; the stock does not appear to have priced in a beat.

NEM vs. GDX (Gold Miners ETF) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 23, 2026). NEM: -13.8% | GDX: -16.8%. Source: Stock Price Data.

NEM opened Q1 earnings day at $111.06 and surged to $120.70 the following session on the strong beat, before giving back gains as the broader gold equity sector sold off sharply through June. The most significant drawdown occurred June 5–10 (NEM fell from ~$108 to ~$93), coinciding with a broad gold equity sector selloff. The stock partially recovered in mid-June following Barclays’ reiteration of Overweight and the leadership overhaul announcement, before drifting lower again through early July. As of July 22, NEM trades at $95.75, representing a 13.8% decline from the Q1 earnings date — but notably outperforming GDX (−16.8%), suggesting NEM-specific factors (strong FCF, buyback, leadership clarity) have provided relative support. The sector ETF used is GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF), which is the standard benchmark for large-cap gold producers and directly comparable to NEM’s sub-sector.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the comprehensive leadership overhaul effective July 1 (new CFO, COO, and CTO all from internal talent), which resolves the long-running CFO vacancy but introduces transition risk heading into a critical operational quarter.

• June 15, 2026 — Leadership Overhaul (CFO, COO, CTO Appointed, Effective July 1): Newmont appointed Brian Tabolt as CFO (previously Chief Accounting Officer), Mark Rodgers as COO (previously MD Africa/Asia Pacific), and David Thornton as CTO (previously MD Americas). All three are internal promotions. Implication: Resolves the CFO vacancy that had been a governance overhang since late 2022; all-internal slate signals management confidence but introduces execution risk as three C-suite roles transition simultaneously heading into Q2 earnings.
• April 28, 2026 — CTO Hardy Retirement Announced: Francois Hardy (EVP & CTO, ~24 years of service) announced retirement effective June 30, 2026. Erin Workman named acting CTO in May. Implication: Preceded the June 15 permanent appointment; the interim period created technical leadership uncertainty during Cadia earthquake recovery.
• April 23, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat + New $6B Buyback Authorization: Record quarterly FCF of $3.144B (all-time high), EPS of $2.90 vs. $2.19 consensus (+32.5%), revenue of $7.307B vs. $6.625B consensus (+10.3%). Board approved 4th buyback authorization since Feb 2024. Implication: Sets a high bar for Q2 but demonstrates the gold price leverage in the business model; $2.4B repurchased since last earnings call.
• April 14, 2026 — Magnitude 4.5 Earthquake at Cadia (Australia): No injuries; underground power and dewatering restored; regulatory approval received to begin repairs. Management guided 80% capacity by end of Q2 and full recovery in Q3. Implication: Key Q2 production and cost swing factor — Cadia is one of NEM’s highest-margin assets (gold + copper); any delay in recovery would pressure Q2 production and AISC.
• February 2026 — Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) JV Default Notice Issued to Barrick: Newmont issued formal notice of default alleging mismanagement and diversion of resources to Barrick’s wholly-owned Fourmile project. Process described as open-ended and iterative; audit rights being exercised. Implication: Unresolved overhang; potential outcomes range from cure to third-party arbitration or litigation; no financial impact disclosed yet but could affect NGM production and capital allocation.
• June 16, 2026 — Barclays Reiterates Overweight, Lowers PT to $125 (from $133): Barclays analyst Richard Garchitorena maintained Overweight rating but trimmed price target, citing gold equity sector correction as a reset rather than a structural downturn. Implication: Consensus PT of ~$136 implies ~42% upside from current levels ($95.75); 24 analysts cover NEM with average PT of $136.26.
• May 13, 2026 — Annual Meeting: All Proposals Approved: Shareholders approved all board and executive compensation proposals. Implication: No governance friction; clean shareholder mandate for the enhanced capital allocation framework.
• Ongoing — Ghana Contractor Mining Compliance Deadline (December 2026): Ghana’s Minerals Commission mandated transition of all Ahafo mining operations to local contractors by December 2026; Newmont’s request for 2027 extension was rejected. CEO met with President Mahama in April. Implication: Non-compliance risks include significant fines and potential mine suspension; management acknowledges capability gaps for technically complex underground operations; resolution timeline unclear.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peers reporting Q1 2026 results in late April/early May provided forward-looking commentary on Q2 2026 that is directly relevant to NEM’s setup: gold price environment remains exceptional, but energy cost inflation (Iran war impact) is expected to show up in Q2 operator costs for the first time, and royalty headwinds from elevated gold prices are a sector-wide AISC pressure. All peers reiterated full-year guidance.

Note: All peer commentary below is sourced from Q1 2026 earnings calls (reported April 30 – May 13, 2026) and non-deal roadshows (June–July 2026). Only forward-looking commentary about Q2 2026 or the current operating environment is included — backward-looking Q1 result discussion is excluded.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 1, 2026)

• Production cadence (read-through for NEM): AEM guided Q2 production similar to Q1 (~825 Kozt), with full-year production weighted 48% H1 / 52% H2. AEM noted Q1 was "slightly above budget" with no specific issues — mine sequencing and Caribou season uncertainty are the primary variables. For NEM, this confirms the sector pattern of H2-weighted production recovery, consistent with NEM’s own guidance for Q3 improvement post-Cadia.
• AISC and cost guidance reiterated (read-through for NEM): AEM reiterated FY 2026 AISC guidance of $1,400–$1,550/oz. Q1 AISC was $1,483/oz, reflecting higher royalties from elevated gold prices (+$117/oz impact), stronger Canadian dollar, and lower production. AEM quantified diesel sensitivity at ~$6/oz per 10% price change (after hedging), with diesel at ~7% of operating costs. AEM’s guidance assumes $0.78/liter diesel. Implication for NEM: Royalty headwinds from gold price are a sector-wide AISC pressure; NEM’s $25/oz Ghana sliding-scale royalty headwind is consistent with this pattern. AEM’s comfort with full-year guidance despite Q1 cost pressures is a positive read-through for NEM’s ability to maintain its own guidance.
• Capital returns acceleration (read-through for NEM): AEM increased its normal course issuer bid to $2B and is targeting ~40% of annual FCF returned via dividends and buybacks at current gold prices. Share buyback activity expected to "ramp up in Q2 and through the rest of the year as FCF is expected to be higher." Implication for NEM: Sector-wide FCF acceleration at current gold prices supports NEM’s new $6B buyback authorization; AEM’s Q2 buyback ramp-up commentary is a positive read-through for NEM’s capital return execution.
• Gold price environment described as "exceptional" (read-through for NEM): AEM reported record net income and record operating margins in Q1 2026, driven by "exceptional gold prices." Management stated the company is "exceptionally well positioned in the current gold price environment." Implication for NEM: Confirms the gold price tailwind is real and flowing to the bottom line across the sector; NEM’s Q2 revenue and EPS should benefit similarly, partially offsetting the AISC step-up.

Kinross Gold (KGC) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 30, 2026)

• Q2 production in line with Q1 (read-through for NEM): KGC guided Q2 production "in line with Q1" (~493 Kozt), with H2 slightly higher. La Coipa grades expected to increase in Q2/Q3 as Phase 7 ore is mined. Round Mountain to contribute higher production in H2 as it progresses into Phase X. Implication for NEM: Sector pattern of stable Q2 production with H2 recovery is consistent with NEM’s own Q2 guidance (slightly below Q1) and Q3 recovery narrative.
• Oil price sensitivity quantified — key Q2 cost read-through: KGC provided detailed oil sensitivity: $10/barrel change = ~$10/oz impact on AISC for 2026 (including refining, distribution, taxes). If oil stays at $100/barrel for the rest of the year, expected full-year AISC impact is ~$20/oz; with secondary inflation on consumables/freight, total potential impact is ~$30/oz (<2% of AISC). KGC has 63% of 2026 U.S./Tasiast fuel hedged at $52/barrel. Implication for NEM: NEM’s own sensitivity is ~$12/oz per $10/barrel change in oil; with diesel at ~6% of direct operating costs and guidance based on $70/barrel Brent, elevated oil prices are a manageable but real Q2 AISC headwind. KGC’s quantification suggests the sector-wide impact is contained.
• Record margins at current gold prices (read-through for NEM): KGC reported record Q1 2026 margins of $3,476/oz (vs. $4,500/oz gold price assumption in guidance). Management noted cost guidance was based on $4,500 gold and $70/barrel oil. Implication for NEM: If gold prices remain elevated through Q2, NEM’s revenue line should provide significant cushion against the AISC step-up, supporting FCF generation even if costs come in at the high end of guidance.

Alamos Gold (AGI) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 30, 2026)

• Q2 production up ~20% sequentially (read-through for NEM): AGI guided Q2 production to increase ~20% from Q1, driven by Island Gold underground ramp-up and Young-Davidson grade recovery. Young-Davidson grades expected to return to guided levels (1.9–2.05 g/t) in Q2 after Q1 disruption. Implication for NEM: AGI’s Q2 production recovery narrative is a positive read-through for the sector’s ability to execute on H2-weighted production plans; NEM’s own Q3 recovery at Cadia follows a similar pattern.
• AISC expected to decrease ~5% in Q2 (read-through for NEM): AGI guided Q2 AISC down ~5% from Q1’s $1,862/oz, based on spot diesel prices as of March 31. Diesel is <5% of AGI’s cost structure. Labor cost pressure is primarily in contractor labor but "all very manageable, all built into our budget." Implication for NEM: AGI’s cost trajectory is the opposite of NEM’s (NEM guided AISC notably higher in Q2 due to sustaining capex ramp-up), but the diesel/labor commentary confirms cost pressures are manageable and within guidance for the sector.
• Hedge elimination at current gold prices (read-through for NEM): AGI used $43M in Q1 to eliminate 15,000 oz of legacy Argonaut gold forward contracts ahead of maturity, bringing total eliminated to 245,000 oz of 330,000 oz originally hedged. Remaining 85,000 oz mature H2 2026/H1 2027. Implication for NEM: NEM has no gold hedges, so this is not directly applicable, but it confirms the sector’s confidence in sustained high gold prices — companies are paying to eliminate downside protection.

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 8, 2026)

• Royalty headwinds are the biggest sector-wide AISC driver (critical read-through for NEM): AU reported Q1 2026 AISC of $1,980/oz for managed operations (+19% YoY), with royalties adding $117/oz (10% of the cost increase). AU’s aggregate royalty rate is ~5.5% of revenue. Management noted royalties are "difficult to offset" and are expected to continue impacting full-year guidance. Implication for NEM: This is the most important peer read-through for NEM’s Q2 AISC. NEM’s Ghana sliding-scale royalty adds ~$25/oz in 2026; AU’s experience confirms that gold price-linked royalties are a structural AISC headwind across the sector that cannot be fully offset by productivity gains.
• Energy cost inflation from Iran war expected in Q2 (critical read-through for NEM): AU noted US CPI escalated to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 2.4% twelve months prior) and Australian inflation nearly doubled to 4.6%. AU’s fuel guidance was based on $31/barrel but forward curve is $71–$78. Management stated: "The biggest structural shock is the gold price" and as long as it remains high, they can cushion other cost increases. Implication for NEM: AU’s explicit acknowledgment of energy cost inflation as a Q2 headwind is directly relevant to NEM’s $70/barrel Brent assumption; if oil has moved above $70, NEM faces a ~$12/oz AISC headwind per $10/barrel.
• FY 2026 guidance reaffirmed despite cost pressures (read-through for NEM): AU reaffirmed 2026 annual guidance and announced a $2B open market share buyback program (targeting 50% of FCF as dividend + buybacks, maintaining ~$1B net cash). Implication for NEM: Sector-wide guidance reaffirmation at current gold prices is a positive read-through; NEM’s own unchanged guidance is consistent with the sector pattern.
• Currency headwinds turned from tailwind to headwind (read-through for NEM): AU noted US dollar weakness has caused local currency appreciation, turning previous FX tailwinds into cost headwinds. This is particularly relevant for NEM’s Australian operations (Cadia, Boddington, Tanami) and Canadian operations (Brucejack, Red Chris) where a stronger AUD/CAD vs. USD increases local-currency costs.

Royal Gold (RGLD) — Non-Deal Roadshow (June 17 & July 16, 2026)

• Iran war energy cost impact expected to show up in Q2 operator costs (critical read-through for NEM): RGLD management explicitly stated: "In the first quarter of this year, you didn’t see many mining companies talking about the impact of the higher energy prices as a result of the Iran war. Those had not shown up in the first quarter of this year. But I think we will likely start to see that in the next couple of quarters." Energy has been "very volatile" and increased "pretty significantly since the middle of March." Implication for NEM: This is the most direct forward-looking commentary on Q2 operator cost inflation. NEM’s $70/barrel Brent assumption in guidance may be tested; the $12/oz sensitivity per $10/barrel change is the key variable to watch in Q2 AISC.
• Gold equity market under pressure but gold price environment remains strong: RGLD noted the gold equity market was "under a lot of pressure" around early May 2026 when Q1 results were released, and the "backdrop is not that positive for gold equities today" (July 16). However, the underlying gold price has been "rising fairly consistently" and the environment is described as "strong." Implication for NEM: The disconnect between gold price strength and gold equity performance is the key setup dynamic; NEM’s stock decline of 13.8% since Q1 earnings reflects equity market sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration.
• Royalty companies vs. operators: margin expansion divergence (read-through for NEM): RGLD highlighted that royalty companies benefit from fixed, low costs (82% EBITDA margin in 2025) while operators face inflation in labor, energy, and consumables that can offset gold price gains. "Operators’ costs are often subject to inflation, so margins may not expand as quickly as gold prices run up." Implication for NEM: As an operator, NEM faces the exact cost pressures RGLD describes — royalties, energy, and labor inflation are structural headwinds to margin expansion even in a strong gold price environment. This is why AISC guidance maintenance is the key credibility test for Q2.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys from any insider since Q1 earnings; all sales are 10b5-1 planned sales (pre-scheduled, not discretionary), which limits the negative signal. The volume of planned sales is notable but consistent with the pattern of executives monetizing equity compensation in a rising stock environment.

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4). All executive sales are under pre-established 10b5-1 plans (transaction code S with overall_10b5 = True), meaning they were scheduled in advance and are not discretionary signals about management’s near-term view. The CEO’s June 1 sale (3,882 shares) is the most notable given her role, but the 10b5-1 designation removes the negative inference. No open-market buys were recorded in the period. The absence of discretionary buying is not unusual given the stock’s strong run and the blackout period ahead of Q2 earnings. Director awards on May 13 are routine annual equity compensation, not open-market transactions.

Analyst Coverage Summary: 24 analysts cover NEM with an average 12-month price target of $136.26 (high: $175.00, low: $111.00), implying ~42% upside from the current price of $95.75. Barclays lowered its PT to $125 (from $133) on July 15, 2026 while maintaining Overweight. Citigroup reiterated Positive on July 14, 2026. No upgrades or downgrades were found in the post-Q1 earnings period.