Newmont Corporation (NEM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is constructive but not without risk — consensus is a manageable bar given Q1's record free cash flow, yet Q2 faces a known step-down in production and a sharp cost headwind from higher sustaining capital, lower silver output, and a full quarter of Ghana's sliding-scale royalty, making AISC the single biggest swing factor.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for Newmont is set against a quarter management explicitly guided as "notably higher" in unit costs and "slightly below" Q1 in production — a deliberate reset after a record-breaking Q1 that generated $3.1 billion in free cash flow at a by-product AISC of just $1,029/oz. Consensus has adjusted accordingly, with the current Q2 AISC estimate at ~$2,005/oz (co-product basis) versus Q1's $1,709/oz actual, reflecting the ramp in sustaining capital, lower silver co-product credits at Peñasquito, and the first full quarter of Ghana's new sliding royalty (estimated ~$25/oz incremental AISC impact for total Newmont). Management's tone on the Q1 call was confident and forward-looking — reaffirming full-year guidance of 5.3 million ounces and maintaining cost guidance despite oil price and royalty headwinds — and the June 15 leadership overhaul (new CFO, COO, and CTO all effective July 1) signals organizational stability rather than disruption. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (Q2 EPS consensus fell from ~$2.12 to ~$1.94), consistent with the guided cost step-up, but the stock has de-rated more sharply — down ~14% from its post-Q1 high — suggesting the market has already priced in a softer quarter and leaving room for a positive surprise if Cadia recovers faster than expected or gold prices provide incremental tailwind. The key wildcard is the Cadia earthquake recovery: management guided for full operational capacity by end of Q2, but any slippage in that timeline would pressure both production and costs simultaneously and could be the difference between a beat and a miss.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus reflects a guided step-down in both production and costs — the bar is not demanding on volume, but AISC is the swing factor; a beat on costs (driven by Cadia recovery pace and silver credits) would be the most meaningful upside surprise.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS, Revenue, Production, AISC, FCF); NEM Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript (guidance figures). All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Top 2 KPIs: Adj. EPS & Attributable Gold Production)

Pattern: NEM has beaten EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with beats averaging ~+23% — a strong track record of under-promising and over-delivering on earnings, though production beats have been more modest and Q3 2024 / Q3 2025 saw slight production misses. The consistent EPS beat pattern reflects gold price leverage and cost discipline exceeding analyst models.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management reaffirmed full-year guidance on the Q1 call (April 23, 2026) and has not issued any formal revision since; the only post-earnings development is the June 15 leadership overhaul (new CFO, COO, CTO effective July 1), which is organizationally significant but carries no direct guidance change.

Sources: NEM Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 23, 2026); NEM Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 23, 2026); NEM 8-K / Leadership Announcement (June 15, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus fell ~8% from the post-Q1 baseline, consistent with the guided cost step-up — while full-year estimates are broadly stable, suggesting the street is not pricing in incremental risk beyond what management has already flagged.

Commentary: The estimate drift since Q1 earnings is orderly and directionally consistent with management's own Q2 guidance — lower production, higher costs, higher capex. The ~8% EPS revision lower is not alarming given the guided cost step-up; if Cadia recovers on schedule and gold prices remain supportive, the current consensus could prove conservative. The FY 2026 estimate stability (+/- 1%) suggests the street is not pricing in incremental risk beyond what management has flagged.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (as-of date: April 30, 2026 for baseline; July 22, 2026 for current). NEM Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript for guidance figures.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: NEM has underperformed both GDX and the S&P 500 since the Q1 print — down ~14% vs. GDX down ~17% and SPY up ~5% — driven almost entirely by multiple compression rather than estimate cuts, suggesting the stock has de-rated on sentiment and sector rotation rather than fundamental deterioration.

Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 23, 2026), NEM closed at $111.06 and has declined to $95.75 as of July 23, 2026 (the earnings day itself), a decline of approximately -14%. GDX declined from $92.19 to $76.68 (-17%) over the same period, while the S&P 500 (SPY) rose from $708.45 to $747.41 (+5.5%). The stock's underperformance vs. the S&P 500 reflects the broader gold sector de-rating from peak sentiment in late February 2026, when NEM touched ~$130. The stock performance decomposition shows that across all time horizons (1M, 3M, 6M), NEM's price decline has been accompanied by significant multiple compression (EV/EBITDA contracted ~7% over 1M, ~19% over 3M, ~34% over 6M), while the 12-month picture shows a +60% price gain despite multiple contraction, confirming that the fundamental earnings upgrade cycle has been the dominant driver of long-term performance. The current NTM EV/EBITDA of 5.0x represents a meaningful discount to historical averages and peers, suggesting the stock is not pricing in a beat.

Key events marked on chart: Leadership team disclosed (June 15, 2026) — new CFO, COO, and CTO announced, effective July 1, 2026.

NEM vs. GDX vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (April 23, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); NEM Stock Performance Decomposition Data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most material development since Q1 earnings is the comprehensive leadership overhaul (CFO, COO, CTO all replaced effective July 1), which resolves a key organizational overhang; the Cadia earthquake recovery trajectory and Ghana regulatory dynamics are the most operationally significant items heading into the print.

• June 15, 2026 — Leadership Overhaul (8-K): Newmont announced three simultaneous C-suite appointments, all effective July 1, 2026: (1) Brian Tabolt (age 45) as permanent CFO — resolving the interim CFO situation that had persisted since late 2024; (2) Mark Rodgers (age 62) as COO, promoted from Managing Director, Africa Asia Pacific; (3) David Thornton (age 45) as CTO, promoted from Managing Director, Americas. Interim CFO Peter Wexler returns to his full-time CLO role. Implication: Resolves a key governance overhang; all three appointees are internal promotions with deep Newmont operational experience, signaling continuity rather than strategic pivot. The new CFO will be presenting Q2 results for the first time.
• April 14, 2026 (disclosed April 23, 2026 on Q1 call) — Cadia Earthquake: A magnitude 4.5 earthquake near Cadia (New South Wales) caused underground damage requiring rehabilitation. No injuries reported; surface infrastructure including tailings facilities undamaged. Management guided for underground rehabilitation completion within 5 weeks of the April 23 call (i.e., by late May), return to 80% capacity, and full operational recovery by end of Q2 2026. Implication: Q2 production at Cadia will be lower due to a gap in mill feed; the pace of recovery is the single biggest operational variable for the Q2 print. If full capacity was achieved by end of June as guided, the impact may be contained.
• March 10 / April 1, 2026 (disclosed Q1 call) — Ghana Sliding Royalty & GSL Adjustment: Ghana enacted a sliding royalty rate of 5%–12% (gold price-dependent) on March 10, 2026, and adjusted the Growth and Sustainability Levy from 3% to 1% on April 1, 2026. Net impact: ~$185/oz for Ghana operations, ~$25/oz for total Newmont AISC. This was not included in original 2026 guidance. Implication: Q2 will be the first full quarter with the new royalty structure in effect (Q1 had only a partial quarter impact). Management is working to offset via productivity initiatives but has not formally raised cost guidance.
• February 2026 (ongoing) — Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) JV Default Notice: Newmont issued a formal notice of default to Barrick (ticker: GOLD) in February 2026, alleging mismanagement and diversion of resources to Barrick's wholly-owned Fourmile project. The process is described as open-ended and iterative; Newmont is exercising audit rights. No resolution timeline set. Implication: Ongoing legal/operational overhang on Nevada assets; management may provide an update on the Q2 call. Barrick reports Q2 results on August 10, 2026 — after NEM — so no Barrick Q2 commentary is available as a read-through.
• July 2, 2026 — Agnico Eagle (AEM) Wall Movement at Canadian Malartic: AEM disclosed a rock mass movement on the north wall of the Barnat open pit at Canadian Malartic (Quebec), temporarily suspending in-pit mining. AEM guided Q2 2026 production at ~845,000 oz (slightly ahead of plan, unaffected by the event), but flagged a 60,000–80,000 oz reduction in H2 2026 production and up to ~150,000 oz/year impact in 2027–2028. Full-year 2026 production expected near the lower end of 3.3–3.5 Moz guidance. Implication: Peer read-through: geotechnical risk is a sector-wide concern; NEM's Cadia earthquake recovery will be scrutinized in the same context. AEM's Q2 production beat despite the event is modestly positive for sector sentiment.
• Ongoing — Ghana Local Contractor Mandate: Ghana's Minerals Commission mandated Newmont transition all mining operations at Ahafo North and South to local contractors by December 2026. Newmont's request for a 2027 extension was rejected. CEO Viljoen met with President Mahama in April 2026; engagement is ongoing. Implication: Non-compliance risks include significant fines and potential mine suspension. Management may provide an update on the Q2 call; any escalation would be a material negative.
• Ongoing — Gold Price Environment: Gold prices have remained elevated well above NEM's $4,500/oz guidance assumption, providing significant revenue and FCF tailwind. The current gold price environment is the primary driver of the sector's strong earnings momentum.

7. Peer Commentary & Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days — Q2 2026 Relevant Only)

Key Takeaway: The most actionable peer read-through is Agnico Eagle's July 2 disclosure of a Q2 2026 production beat (~845 Koz, slightly ahead of plan) despite the Canadian Malartic wall movement — suggesting the gold sector broadly delivered solid Q2 volumes; the AEM event also highlights that geotechnical risk (directly relevant to NEM's Cadia earthquake) is a live sector concern heading into earnings season.

Note on scope: This section includes only peer commentary and disclosures made in the last 60 days (on or after May 22, 2026) that relate to the current Q2 2026 reporting period or provide forward-looking color on Q2/H2 2026 dynamics. Peer Q1 2026 earnings results and retrospective Q1 commentary are excluded.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) — July 2, 2026 Disclosure

Event: AEM disclosed a rock mass movement at the Barnat open pit at Canadian Malartic (Quebec) on July 1, 2026, via a press release filed as a 6-K on July 2, 2026. AEM reports Q2 2026 results on July 29, 2026 (after market close), with a conference call on July 30, 2026.

Key disclosures relevant to NEM:

• Q2 2026 production guidance: AEM expects Q2 2026 production of approximately 845,000 ounces of gold, slightly ahead of plan — the Barnat wall movement occurred on July 1 (after Q2 ended June 30) and did not affect Q2 production. This is a positive read-through for sector Q2 production delivery.
• H2 2026 / 2027–2028 production impact: AEM flagged a 60,000–80,000 oz reduction in H2 2026 production at Canadian Malartic and up to ~150,000 oz/year impact in 2027–2028. Full-year 2026 production expected near the lower end of 3.3–3.5 Moz guidance.
• Geotechnical read-through for NEM: The Barnat wall movement is a reminder that open-pit geotechnical risk is a live sector concern. For NEM, the analogous event is the April 14 Cadia earthquake — management guided for full recovery by end of Q2, and the Q2 print will confirm whether that timeline was achieved. Any slippage would be viewed negatively given the AEM precedent.
• Sector sentiment: AEM's Q2 production beat (despite the event occurring on the last day of the quarter) is modestly positive for gold sector Q2 earnings sentiment broadly, suggesting operational execution was solid across the peer group in Q2.

Kinross Gold (KGC) — July 2, 2026 Announcement

Event: Kinross announced on July 2, 2026 that it will release Q2 2026 results on July 29, 2026 (after market close), with a conference call on July 30, 2026. No operational pre-announcement or production update was included.

Read-through for NEM: The absence of any negative pre-announcement from Kinross (which operates in similar jurisdictions including West Africa and the Americas) is a mild positive read-through — no sector-wide operational disruption signal. Kinross reports the same day as AEM (July 29), one week after NEM, so NEM will set the tone for the gold sector Q2 earnings season.

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) — Q2 2026 Earnings Scheduled July 22, 2026

Event: AngloGold Ashanti is scheduled to release Q2 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026 (same day as this preview is prepared), with a webcast at 09:00 EDT / 14:00 BST on July 31, 2026. AU also announced a $2 billion share buyback program (shareholder vote scheduled), reflecting strong balance sheet confidence.

Read-through for NEM: AU's Q2 2026 results (if available before NEM's call on July 23) could provide a direct read-through on African gold operations (AU operates in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and DRC). AU's Q1 2026 EPS of $2.52 beat consensus of $2.27 by $0.25 (+11%), and revenue was $3.24B. If AU's Q2 results show continued strong performance in African operations, it would be a positive read-through for NEM's Ahafo and Akyem operations in Ghana. The $2B buyback authorization also signals sector-wide confidence in sustained free cash flow generation at current gold prices.

Barrick Mining (GOLD) — No Q2 Pre-Announcement; Reports August 10, 2026

Event: Barrick announced on July 10, 2026 that it will release Q2 2026 results on August 10, 2026 (before market open). No operational pre-announcement or production update was issued.

Read-through for NEM: Barrick reports after NEM, so no Q2 Barrick commentary is available as a forward read-through. However, the ongoing NGM JV default notice dispute between NEM and Barrick remains an active overhang; any Barrick commentary on Nevada Gold Mines at its August 10 call will be closely watched. The absence of a Barrick pre-announcement is a neutral signal for Nevada operations.

Sector-Wide Context: Reuters (July 22, 2026)

A Reuters article published July 22, 2026 noted that gold miners are "set for earnings growth" in Q2 2026 driven by elevated gold prices, but flagged that "higher costs could temper gains" — directly consistent with NEM's own Q2 guidance of notably higher AISC. The article confirmed the Q2 earnings calendar: NEM reports July 23, followed by AEM and KGC on July 29, and Barrick on August 10. This sequencing makes NEM the first major gold miner to report Q2 2026, giving it outsized influence on sector sentiment.

9. Risks & Key Questions for the Call

Key Upside Risks

• Cadia recovery ahead of schedule: If Cadia achieved full operational capacity before end of June (rather than exactly at end of Q2), production and AISC could both surprise positively. Any disclosure of a faster-than-guided recovery would be the single biggest upside catalyst.
• Gold price leverage: Gold prices have remained well above the $4,500/oz guidance assumption; every $100/oz above guidance adds meaningful EPS and FCF upside. The realized gold price for Q2 will be closely watched.
• Silver/copper co-product credits: Q1's record AISC beat was partly driven by favorable silver and copper co-product pricing. If Peñasquito's silver production was better than guided (management flagged lower silver due to organic carbon processing), AISC could come in below the $2,005/oz consensus.
• Buyback pace: The new $6B buyback authorization (approved Q1 2026) is being executed on a ratable basis. Any disclosure of accelerated buyback activity would be a positive capital return signal.

Key Downside Risks

• Cadia recovery delayed: If underground rehabilitation took longer than the guided 5 weeks, Q2 production could miss consensus and AISC could overshoot. This is the single biggest downside risk.
• Ghana regulatory escalation: Any update indicating the December 2026 local contractor deadline cannot be met, or that the Minerals Commission is escalating enforcement, would be a material negative. Non-compliance risks include significant fines and potential mine suspension.
• NGM JV dispute escalation: Any deterioration in the Newmont-Barrick Nevada Gold Mines dispute (e.g., move toward arbitration or litigation) would be a negative overhang on Nevada production and costs.
• Oil price / energy cost headwind: Management guided that every $10/bbl change in Brent crude impacts AISC by ~$12/oz. If oil prices remained elevated through Q2, this could add incremental cost pressure beyond the guided step-up.
• New leadership execution risk: The new CFO (Tabolt), COO (Rodgers), and CTO (Thornton) are all effective July 1 — after Q2 ended. Q2 results will be presented by the new CFO for the first time; any uncertainty in messaging or guidance could be negatively received.

Key Questions for the Q2 2026 Earnings Call

1. Cadia recovery: Did Cadia achieve full operational capacity by end of Q2 as guided? What was the actual production impact in Q2, and what is the Q3 production trajectory from Cadia?
2. Ghana contractor mandate: What is the current status of negotiations with the Minerals Commission on the December 2026 local contractor deadline? Has Newmont identified a path to compliance, and what is the financial impact if the deadline is not met?
3. NGM JV dispute: What is the current status of the Nevada Gold Mines default notice process? Has Newmont received any response from Barrick, and what are the next steps?
4. FY 2026 guidance: Is management maintaining full-year production guidance of 5.3 Moz and AISC guidance of $1,680/oz (by-product)? Has the Ghana royalty headwind been fully offset by productivity initiatives?
5. Capital returns: What is the pace of the new $6B buyback authorization? How much has been repurchased since the Q1 call, and what is the expected cadence for the remainder of 2026?
6. 2027 guidance: Management signaled on the Q1 call that they are considering providing 2027 guidance later in 2026. Is there any update on timing, and can management provide directional color on the production recovery trajectory toward 6 Moz?
7. Red Chris FID: Management guided for a Red Chris block cave FID in H2 2026. Is this still on track, and what are the key milestones remaining (Tahltan community permits, feasibility study completion)?
8. New leadership priorities: With the new CFO, COO, and CTO all starting July 1, what are the top operational and financial priorities for the new leadership team in H2 2026?