| NOC |
Report |
EPS (MTM-adj) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.98 vs. cons $6.83 |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Report |
Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$10.72B vs. cons $10.8B |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Report |
Segment operating margin |
IN-LINE |
pred ~11.0% vs. cons ~11.0% |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Guide |
FY26 MTM-adj EPS guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$27.40-27.90 (mid $27.65) vs. cons $27.70 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Guide |
FY26 Free cash flow guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.1-3.5B (mid $3.3B) vs. cons ~$3.3B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Guide |
FY26 Sales guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$43.5-44.0B (mid $43.75B) vs. cons ~$43.8B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Guide |
FY26 Segment operating income guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4,850-5,000M (mid $4,925M) vs. cons ~$4,925M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| NOC |
Guide |
F/A-XX down-select timing/positioning commentary |
UNKNOWN |
guide unquantified upside vs. cons $0 in numbers (Q3 2026 catalyst) |
LOW |
| NOC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| NOC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
Likely a modest EPS beat on a beatable, back-half-skewed bar, but guidance only reaffirmed (not raised as in 2025) — the market wanted a raise on segment OI/EPS/FCF. With capex stepped up ~$2.5B for B-21 and H1 a cash use, the FCF bridge stays doubted; reaffirmation plus any Space Systems EAC feeds the bear thesis. Out-period math (implicit H2 skew required to hit reaffirmed midpoints) pulls forward estimates down even after the headline beat, and the F/A-XX August down-select overhang plus the 'cheap-drone'/higher-for-longer-rate narrative keep the de-rated stock under pressure, so the initial dip follows through rather than reverses. |
LOW |