{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (MTM-adj)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.98 vs. cons $6.83",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.72B vs. cons $10.8B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Segment operating margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~11.0% vs. cons ~11.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 MTM-adj EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$27.40-27.90 (mid $27.65) vs. cons $27.70 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Free cash flow guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.1-3.5B (mid $3.3B) vs. cons ~$3.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Sales guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$43.5-44.0B (mid $43.75B) vs. cons ~$43.8B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Segment operating income guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4,850-5,000M (mid $4,925M) vs. cons ~$4,925M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "F/A-XX down-select timing/positioning commentary",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide unquantified upside vs. cons $0 in numbers (Q3 2026 catalyst)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Likely a modest EPS beat on a beatable, back-half-skewed bar, but guidance only reaffirmed (not raised as in 2025) \u2014 the market wanted a raise on segment OI/EPS/FCF. With capex stepped up ~$2.5B for B-21 and H1 a cash use, the FCF bridge stays doubted; reaffirmation plus any Space Systems EAC feeds the bear thesis. Out-period math (implicit H2 skew required to hit reaffirmed midpoints) pulls forward estimates down even after the headline beat, and the F/A-XX August down-select overhang plus the 'cheap-drone'/higher-for-longer-rate narrative keep the de-rated stock under pressure, so the initial dip follows through rather than reverses.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}