NOC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NOC Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$7.00 vs. cons ~$6.83 MEDIUM
NOC Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$10.92B vs. cons ~$10.80B MEDIUM
NOC Report Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow MISS pred ~-$100M vs. cons ~$300M MEDIUM
NOC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance LOWER guide ~$27.65 (midpoint, unchanged $27.40-$27.90) vs. cons ~$27.93 (FY2026) MEDIUM
NOC Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$3.3B (midpoint, unchanged $3.1-$3.5B) vs. cons ~$3.3B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NOC Guide FY2026 Sales guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$43.75B (midpoint, unchanged $43.5-$44.0B) vs. cons ~$43.8B (FY2026) HIGH
NOC Guide Space Systems segment margin commentary UNCHANGED guide ~11% margin (reiterated) vs. cons ~11% (FY2026) LOW
NOC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
NOC Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) An EPS/revenue beat should spark a short-covering relief bounce given deeply oversold conditions and already-slashed sell-side targets, but the FY2026 EPS guide (~$27.65 midpoint) sits below Street consensus (~$27.93), so analysts likely trim out-year numbers toward guidance even after a headline beat — the same dynamic that turned Q1's beat into a ~19% post-print decline via FCF/EAC concerns. Continued B-21 capex ramp and uncertain H2 cash conversion keep FCF-driven revision risk alive, causing the initial pop to fade over the week rather than follow through. LOW