NOW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NOW Report cRPO growth (cc, YoY) BEAT pred ~20% cc vs. cons ~19.5% cc (guide +19.5% cc incl. ~125bps Armis) MEDIUM
NOW Report Subscription revenue BEAT pred ~$3,850M vs. cons ~$3,823M (guide $3,815-3,820M) MEDIUM
NOW Report Non-GAAP operating margin BEAT pred ~28.3% vs. cons ~26.8% (guide 26.5%) MEDIUM
NOW Guide FY26 subscription revenue guide (crux: organic vs. inorganic raise) BETTER guide raise to ~$15,830M vs. cons ~$15,815M (FY26); but raise likely still Armis/FX-led, organic flat MEDIUM
NOW Guide Q3 FY26 subscription revenue guide UNCHANGED guide ~$3,975M vs. cons ~$3,970M (Q3 FY26) LOW
NOW Guide Q3 FY26 cRPO growth guide (deceleration optics) LOWER guide ~18.5% cc vs. cons ~19% cc (Q3 FY26); organic decel continues MEDIUM
NOW Guide FY26 non-GAAP operating margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~31.5% vs. cons ~31.5% (FY26) MEDIUM
NOW Guide Now Assist / AI ACV target (2026) UNKNOWN guide reaffirm/raise ~$1.5B vs. prior ~$1.5B (FY26); possible upside bump but hard to isolate under AI-native bundling LOW
NOW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
NOW Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Base case is another mechanical beat-and-raise where the FY lift is Armis/FX-driven while organic cRPO decelerates (~20% reported masks ~18% organic). After Q1's ~18% drop on exactly this pattern and fragile software sentiment post-IBM warning, the initial reaction skews negative; out-period math (implicit organic cuts, decel Q3 cRPO guide) pulls forward numbers down even after the headline beat, so weakness follows through rather than reverses. Wide distribution given beaten-down base (~$102 vs. $147 YTD high) — a clear organic acceleration/AI ACV raise could flip this to a relief rally, hence low confidence. LOW