| NSC |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.00 vs. cons ~$3.05 |
MEDIUM |
| NSC |
Report |
Revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.18B vs. cons ~$3.19B |
MEDIUM |
| NSC |
Report |
Adjusted Operating Ratio (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~66.9% vs. cons ~66.6% |
MEDIUM |
| NSC |
Guide |
STB approval / deal close timing |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~mid-2027 vs. cons ~mid-2027 (close timing); reaffirm post-7/27 supplemental filing |
MEDIUM |
| NSC |
Guide |
FY26 adjusted operating-cost envelope |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$8.2-8.4B vs. cons ~$8.3B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NSC |
Guide |
Merger-related intermodal revenue leakage / synergies |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$2.75B synergies vs. cons ~$2.75B (post-close run-rate); leakage trajectory the swing item |
LOW |
| NSC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-0.5% |
— |
LOW |
| NSC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (STABILIZE) |
NSC is a merger-arb stock: equity value is locked to 1.0 UNP share + $88.82 cash and STB approval odds, not quarterly EPS. Price action confirms NSC tracks UNP almost 1:1, so the print itself has minimal idiosyncratic pull. Expect softer YoY profitability off a land-sale-aided Q2'25 comp but in-line vs consensus and solid sequential OR progress — not enough to reprice the ~15% deal spread. The only true catalyst is the 7/27 STB supplemental filing and any timeline/conditions color; absent a surprise there, residual return stays near zero and stabilizes as the spread re-anchors to UNP and regulatory probability. |
LOW |