{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.00 vs. cons ~$3.05",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.18B vs. cons ~$3.19B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating Ratio (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~66.9% vs. cons ~66.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "STB approval / deal close timing",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-2027 vs. cons ~mid-2027 (close timing); reaffirm post-7/27 supplemental filing",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted operating-cost envelope",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.2-8.4B vs. cons ~$8.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Merger-related intermodal revenue leakage / synergies",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.75B synergies vs. cons ~$2.75B (post-close run-rate); leakage trajectory the swing item",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "NSC is a merger-arb stock: equity value is locked to 1.0 UNP share + $88.82 cash and STB approval odds, not quarterly EPS. Price action confirms NSC tracks UNP almost 1:1, so the print itself has minimal idiosyncratic pull. Expect softer YoY profitability off a land-sale-aided Q2'25 comp but in-line vs consensus and solid sequential OR progress \u2014 not enough to reprice the ~15% deal spread. The only true catalyst is the 7/27 STB supplemental filing and any timeline/conditions color; absent a surprise there, residual return stays near zero and stabilizes as the spread re-anchors to UNP and regulatory probability.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}