{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.38 vs. cons $3.28",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.42B vs. cons $3.35B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating Ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~66.3% vs. cons 66.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Operating Cost Envelope",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.3B vs. cons $8.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Incremental Productivity Savings",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$150M vs. cons $150M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "UP-NS Merger Expected Close Timing",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~2027 vs. cons 2027 (deal closing timeline)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest operational beat (in line with CSX's strong read-through and NSC's cost-discipline trend) should support a positive but muted day-1 pop given shares already near all-time highs on merger-arb dynamics rather than standalone fundamentals. Into day 5, attention shifts almost entirely to the STB supplemental filing deadline (July 27, just days after the print) and merger approval odds; full-year 2026/2027 consensus estimates have already been drifting lower on macro/competitive intermodal pressure even as near-term numbers get revised up, so any implicit out-period caution (continued intermodal share loss, fuel volatility, unchanged cost guide rather than raised) likely caps follow-through and pulls the initial idiosyncratic pop back toward flat as merger-timeline headlines dominate the narrative.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}