NSC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NSC Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.27 vs. cons $3.23 MEDIUM
NSC Report Railway operating revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.29B vs. cons $3.30B MEDIUM
NSC Report Adjusted operating ratio IN-LINE pred ~66.9% vs. cons 66.7% MEDIUM
NSC Guide Adjusted operating-cost envelope UNCHANGED guide ~$8.3B midpoint vs. cons $8.3B midpoint (FY2026) MEDIUM
NSC Guide Productivity savings BETTER guide ~$175M vs. cons $150M (FY2026) LOW
NSC Guide Union Pacific transaction closing timeline UNCHANGED guide ~Q3 2027 vs. cons Q3 2027 (transaction close) MEDIUM
NSC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% LOW
NSC Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.2% (FADE) The Q2 EPS beat adds roughly $0.04, but fuel and a high-end cost-envelope bias likely reduce H2 estimates by roughly $0.06, implying an approximately $0.02 net FY2026 estimate cut; merger-arbitrage pricing should further limit follow-through. LOW