{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.27 vs. cons $3.23",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Railway operating revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.29B vs. cons $3.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating ratio",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~66.9% vs. cons 66.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating-cost envelope",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.3B midpoint vs. cons $8.3B midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Productivity savings",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$175M vs. cons $150M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Union Pacific transaction closing timeline",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~Q3 2027 vs. cons Q3 2027 (transaction close)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The Q2 EPS beat adds roughly $0.04, but fuel and a high-end cost-envelope bias likely reduce H2 estimates by roughly $0.06, implying an approximately $0.02 net FY2026 estimate cut; merger-arbitrage pricing should further limit follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}