NTRS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NTRS Report EPS (diluted, Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.72 vs. cons $2.63 MEDIUM
NTRS Report Trust & servicing fees BEAT pred ~$1.34B vs. cons ~$1.31B MEDIUM
NTRS Report Net interest income (FTE) IN-LINE pred ~$648M vs. cons ~$645M LOW
NTRS Guide FY2026 NII growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~mid-to-high single digit (~7%) vs. cons ~7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
NTRS Guide FY2026 positive operating leverage UNCHANGED guide >100bps vs. cons >100bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
NTRS Guide Capital return / payout ratio UNCHANGED guide ~100%+ payout vs. cons ~100% (FY2026) MEDIUM
NTRS Guide Visa Class B monetization / buyback use UNKNOWN guide ~$470M pretax proceeds vs. cons undecided use ~$0 incremental (2H2026) LOW
NTRS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
NTRS Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) A modest EPS/fee beat clears the number but the bar is elevated (stock +33% YTD, near record ~$191). Much of Q1's upside (transitory ~$9B deposit surge, FX/volatility-driven trading) is normalizing, so out-period estimates get trimmed even after a beat; deposit give-back and tough capital-markets comps cap forward NII/fee revisions. Initial pop fades as the durability question and full valuation reassert. LOW