{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (diluted, Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.72 vs. cons $2.63",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Trust & servicing fees",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.34B vs. cons ~$1.31B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net interest income (FTE)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$648M vs. cons ~$645M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 NII growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-to-high single digit (~7%) vs. cons ~7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 positive operating leverage",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >100bps vs. cons >100bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / payout ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~100%+ payout vs. cons ~100% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Visa Class B monetization / buyback use",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$470M pretax proceeds vs. cons undecided use ~$0 incremental (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS/fee beat clears the number but the bar is elevated (stock +33% YTD, near record ~$191). Much of Q1's upside (transitory ~$9B deposit surge, FX/volatility-driven trading) is normalizing, so out-period estimates get trimmed even after a beat; deposit give-back and tough capital-markets comps cap forward NII/fee revisions. Initial pop fades as the durability question and full valuation reassert.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}