| NTRS |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.68 |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.78B vs. cons $2.69B |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Report |
Net Interest Income (NII) |
BEAT |
pred ~$690M vs. cons $670M |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Guide |
FY2026 NII growth guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~high-single-digit (~8-9%) vs. cons mid-single-digit (~6%) (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Guide |
FY2026 positive operating leverage guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~150bps vs. cons/prior >100bps (FY2026) |
LOW |
| NTRS |
Guide |
H2 2026 expense growth trajectory |
BETTER |
guide ~2% expense growth vs. cons ~4% (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| NTRS |
Guide |
Effective tax rate guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~26.0% vs. cons 26.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| NTRS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.3% (FADE) |
Even with a likely beat-and-raise (NII/op-leverage), NTRS enters the print trading above its average analyst price target with a Hold-leaning analyst base and a stock already up ~30% YTD; State Street's -1.4% reaction to a clean beat/raise last week shows how priced-in expectations are in the custody-bank group. Initial pop from the beat should partially fade over the week as analysts digest that much of the Q1 lift (deposit surge, capital-markets/FX volatility) is normalizing and full-year guidance reaffirmation (rather than a dramatic raise) leaves out-period estimates only modestly higher, capping follow-through. |
LOW |