{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.68",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.78B vs. cons $2.69B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Interest Income (NII)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$690M vs. cons $670M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 NII growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~high-single-digit (~8-9%) vs. cons mid-single-digit (~6%) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 positive operating leverage guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~150bps vs. cons/prior >100bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 2026 expense growth trajectory",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2% expense growth vs. cons ~4% (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective tax rate guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~26.0% vs. cons 26.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even with a likely beat-and-raise (NII/op-leverage), NTRS enters the print trading above its average analyst price target with a Hold-leaning analyst base and a stock already up ~30% YTD; State Street's -1.4% reaction to a clean beat/raise last week shows how priced-in expectations are in the custody-bank group. Initial pop from the beat should partially fade over the week as analysts digest that much of the Q1 lift (deposit surge, capital-markets/FX volatility) is normalizing and full-year guidance reaffirmation (rather than a dramatic raise) leaves out-period estimates only modestly higher, capping follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}