NTRS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NTRS Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.66 vs. cons $2.60 MEDIUM
NTRS Report Net interest income (FTE) BEAT pred ~$655M vs. cons $646M MEDIUM
NTRS Report Trust, investment and other servicing fees BEAT pred ~$1.37B vs. cons $1.35B MEDIUM
NTRS Guide Full-year net interest income growth LOWER guide ~7.5% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
NTRS Guide Full-year positive operating leverage LOWER guide ~100 bps vs. cons 175 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
NTRS Guide Common-shareholder payout ratio UNCHANGED guide ~100% vs. cons 100% (FY2026) HIGH
NTRS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
NTRS Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest ~$0.06 EPS beat versus consensus is likely offset by FY2026 guide math of ~7.5% NII growth versus ~8.0% consensus and ~100 bps operating leverage versus ~175 bps expected; those ~50 bps to ~75 bps out-period profitability gaps imply forward EPS revisions lower after a stock that rose ~16.4% from $158.99 on April 20, 2026 to $185.09 on July 21, 2026. MEDIUM