{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.55 vs. cons ~$4.55",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Net sales",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$9.9B vs. cons ~$9.8B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Steel Mills segment pretax earnings",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.45B vs. cons ~$1.40B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 implied EPS (one-time refund + Helion gain roll off)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.05 vs. cons ~$4.35 (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 steel shipment growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+8% vs. cons ~+6% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Steel-mills backlog / H2 sheet price catch-up commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide backlog ~4.7M+ tons vs. ~4.7M tons prior (Q3'26 entry)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline is fully pre-announced ($4.70-4.80 GAAP / $4.50-4.60 adj), so the print is de-risked and offers little upside surprise. Q2 is inflated by ~$130M one-time raw-materials refund and a ~$61M non-cash Helion gain that do not recur, so the out-period math implies a lower sequential Q3 even off a strong Q2 \u2014 analysts trim Q3 estimates. With the stock up ~46% YTD and rebounding into the print near cyclical highs, sell-the-news risk dominates; strong FY shipment/backlog commentary cushions but doesn't offset the implicit Q3 step-down, driving a fade over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}