{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.68 vs. cons $4.57",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.35B vs. cons $10.14B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Steel Mills segment pretax earnings / ASP",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.28B segment pretax profit (ASP ~$1,110/ton) vs. cons ~$1.22B (ASP ~$1,090/ton)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 EPS/earnings guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.85-4.95 vs. cons ~$4.75 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 total shipment growth outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~10% vs. cons ~7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 CapEx guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock has rallied ~45% from April lows to ~$247 heading into the print (near the 52-wk high of $271), pricing in a beat-and-raise scenario. Even with an EPS/revenue beat and a modestly better FY2026 shipment/volume outlook, the magnitude of the raise (Q3 guide only slightly above consensus, CapEx/capital-return targets unchanged) is unlikely to be enough to justify further multiple expansion after such a sharp run. Analyst estimate revisions should move up modestly (positive out-period EPS math from higher HRC realizations), but with so much good news already discounted and elevated positioning, profit-taking and 'sell-the-news' dynamics typically dominate over the following days, producing a fade rather than follow-through, similar to prior instances where NUE gave back a portion of pre-print gains after in-line-to-good (but not blow-out) prints.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}