PCG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PCG Report Core (non-GAAP) diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.39 vs. cons $0.37 MEDIUM
PCG Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$6.35B vs. cons $6.27B LOW
PCG Report Non-fuel O&M expense (y/y change) BEAT pred ~-3% vs. cons -1% MEDIUM
PCG Guide FY2026 core EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$1.65 vs. cons $1.65 (FY2026) HIGH
PCG Guide Long-term EPS CAGR guidance (2026-2030) UNCHANGED guide ~9% vs. cons 9% (2026-2030) HIGH
PCG Guide 5-year capital plan UNCHANGED guide ~$73B vs. cons $73B (2026-2030) MEDIUM
PCG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.8% LOW
PCG Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.0% (FADE) Q1'26 core EPS beat consensus by ~$0.10 yet FY guide stayed at $1.64-1.66, forcing analysts to trim H2 numbers to reconcile - PCG then faded ~3% vs SPY over the next 5 days despite the beat. Same math applies now: H1 core EPS (~$0.43+$0.39=$0.82) vs unchanged FY guide implies flat-to-lower implied H2 run-rate, an implicit cut to out-quarter estimates even if Q2 itself beats. Stock also rallied +3.5% into the print (pricing in optimism/BMO $28 target), leaving little room for upside surprise, while the dominant catalyst - SB254 Phase 2 wildfire-liability reform - remains unresolved through the Aug legislative session, so 'reaffirm and wait' commentary likely disappoints an already-elevated bar. MEDIUM