Report Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026, before market open | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
| Consensus EPS (core/non-GAAP) | ~$0.36–$0.38 (vs. $0.31 in Q2 2025) |
| Consensus Revenue | ~$6.2–$6.3B (vs. ~$5.9–$6.0B in Q2 2025) |
| FY2026 core EPS guidance | $1.64–$1.66 (reaffirmed at Q1) |
| Stock price (7/22/26 close) | $18.10 (52-week range roughly $14.93–$19.11) |
| Consensus analyst price target | ~$22–$23 |
| Analyst sentiment | Street skews bullish (Buy/Strong Buy majority); Zacks model flags near-term caution |
Wall Street is looking for continued double-digit-esque earnings growth: Wall Street is looking for steady growth when PG&E Corporation reports second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, with the consensus among 10 analysts calling for earnings per share of $0.36 on revenue of $6.20 billion, representing a 16.1% increase from the $0.31 per share the utility earned in the second quarter of 2025. A separate estimate set puts the bar slightly higher: analysts expect the company to post diluted EPS of $0.37, up 19.4% from $0.31 in the year-ago quarter, with fiscal 2026 EPS expected at $1.65, reflecting 10% growth from $1.50 in fiscal 2025.
Not everyone is uniformly upbeat: one Zacks-based preview notes the company's Earnings ESP is -1.37% and PCG currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), even as it flags supportive drivers: rising electric load from EV adoption, data center expansion and building electrification is expected to have lifted energy consumption, while higher sales expectations and reduced non-fuel O&M expenses are likely to have boosted second-quarter earnings.
PG&E's first quarter set an encouraging tone for the year. Core (non-GAAP) EPS was $0.43 (vs. $0.33 in Q1 2025), and GAAP EPS was $0.39 (vs. $0.28). Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64–$1.66 — a midpoint that would mark PG&E's fifth consecutive year of double-digit core earnings growth — and reiterated 9%+ annual EPS growth guidance through 2030 with zero new equity issuance required. The Q1 beat was aided by a one-time $0.04 benefit tied to a February WMCE regulatory decision, so investors should watch whether Q2's growth is more "clean" execution (rate base returns, O&M savings) versus one-off items.
Key threads carried into Q2: - Affordability push: PG&E cut residential bundled electric rates for the fifth time since January 2024 in March 2026, taking CARE/vulnerable-customer rates down 23% and other residential rates down 13% (~$300/year) since 2024. - Cost discipline: Management remains on track for its 2–4% long-term non-fuel O&M reduction target, aided by technology (continuous monitoring, satellite/LiDAR inspections) generating tens of millions in annual savings. - Capital plan: The $73B five-year (2026–2030) capital plan is unchanged, with management flagging at least $5B of incremental "outside the plan" investment opportunity (data centers, transmission, reliability) that it would rather use to make the plan "better" (pull in rate-reducing load) or "longer" (extend the growth runway) than "bigger." - Large load/data centers: 4.6 GW of customer data-center demand was in final engineering as of Q1, with a third cluster study ("Cluster '26") showing customer interest exceeding 10 GW across multiple regions. Management still targets ~1.8 GW online by 2030, translating into roughly a 1–2% bill reduction. - Diablo Canyon: Received NRC 20-year license renewal in April 2026 (operations secured through 2030); extension beyond 2030 still requires state legislative action.
This is arguably the single most important variable for PCG shares right now — more than the quarterly print itself. On the Q1 call, CEO Patti Poppe was explicit that capital allocation (dividend growth, buybacks, even the shape of the $73B plan) is contingent on the outcome of this year's legislative session, which runs through August 2026.
Background: in the wake of the January 2025 wildfires that devastated Southern California, the state adopted Senate Bill 254 (2025, Becker), aimed primarily at expanding the existing Wildfire Fund, which was first established in AB 1054 (2019) to serve as an insurance backstop, with SB 254 creating an $18 billion Continuation Account to supplement the fund. SB 254 also directed the California Earthquake Authority (CEA), as fund administrator, to study long-term reform options.
That study — the CEA's "SB 254 Study Report" — was delivered April 7, 2026, and has since triggered contentious legislative hearings: on April 7, the California Earthquake Authority submitted to the legislature and the governor the report required by SB 254, described as the most comprehensive state-commissioned analysis of the problem ever assembled. Assembly, Senate Energy, Senate Insurance, and Senate Emergency Management committees held oversight hearings in mid-May 2026 to debate its recommendations.
The politics are genuinely two-sided. Consumer/survivor advocates have pushed back hard: hearings in May 2026 discussed CEA recommendations including limiting liability from for-profit electric utilities, preventing wildfire survivors' rights to recovery, imposing a sales tax to create a "bailout fund" for utilities, and preventing insurance companies and public entities from recovering losses when utilities start fires, with critics arguing "it's a bailout for utilities, dressed up in policy language". On the regulator side, the CPUC has separately warned that wildfire mitigation and liability costs authorized for ratepayer recovery totaled approximately $40 billion between 2019 and 2024, with ratepayers paying over $9 billion in 2024 alone — more than double CAL FIRE's annual budget, framing the core problem as: "the energy affordability problem is to a large extent a wildfire cost problem — if we address wildfire costs, we go a long way towards solving energy affordability too".
Why this matters for the print: PG&E has drawn a clear line for what it needs — durability and predictability of tail risk — and has said everything (dividend policy, buyback potential, financing plan) is "on the table" if a workable outcome doesn't materialize by the end of the legislative session in late August. Investors should listen closely on the call for any updated tone: encouraged vs. frustrated, and whether management gives any hint of timeline slippage (i.e., resolution kicked past this session).
Progress toward investment-grade ratings is a real, tangible value driver (lower cost of debt = customer savings + equity value). Moody's shifted PG&E's outlook to positive following the Q4 2025 call, and management has been explicit that sustained FFO/debt in the mid-teens and continued wildfire mitigation progress support the case for an upgrade.
Notably, on June 22, 2026, PG&E amended its revolving credit facilities: the utility's facility was expanded to $6.25B and extended to 2031, while the parent-level facility was extended to 2029 and now includes collateral release terms that trigger automatically once PG&E Corp achieves senior unsecured investment-grade ratings from at least two agencies (with certain conditions). This is a strong tell that management sees an IG upgrade as plausible in the near-to-medium term, and it's worth listening for any commentary on rating-agency conversations on the call.
PCG shares have recovered from a January 2026 low near $15 to roughly $18 heading into the print, still trading at a meaningful discount to Street price targets. Coverage is broadly constructive: of 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it "Strong Buy" and five recommend "Hold," with an average price target of $22.44 implying potential upside of about 30% from the pre-print share price. Recent target trims (e.g., Truist to $22 from $23, Morgan Stanley to $22 from $23) reflect broader utility-sector model refreshes rather than PCG-specific deterioration, while several firms (Goldman Sachs, Truist, Morgan Stanley/"Morgan") have reaffirmed Buy ratings into the print. The wide gap between the ~$18 share price and ~$22–23 targets essentially reflects the market's residual wildfire-liability and legislative-outcome discount — a gap that could close quickly (in either direction) depending on how SB 254 Phase 2 develops over the summer.
The quarterly numbers themselves are likely to be a non-event if PG&E simply reaffirms 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64–$1.66 and shows continued O&M discipline and rate-base execution — consistent with the trajectory set in Q1. The stock's real catalyst path over the next several weeks is legislative, not fundamental: how the CEA's SB 254 study recommendations get (or don't get) codified into law before the session closes in late August. Secondary threads worth monitoring on the call include progress toward investment-grade credit ratings (now visibly signaled via the June credit facility amendments), the pace at which the data-center/large-load pipeline converts from "final engineering" to firm construction, and any incremental color on the 2027 GRC and 10-year undergrounding filing. Given the stock's discount to consensus price targets, a "steady as she goes" quarter combined with even modestly encouraging legislative tone could be a positive catalyst; conversely, signs that Phase 2 reform is stalling or being pushed past this session would likely reinforce the valuation discount.