Timing note: PG&E scheduled its second-quarter call for today, Thursday, July 23, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET / 8:00 a.m. PT—not tomorrow. This preview assumes the results and call have not yet occurred.
For PCG, the quarterly EPS number is unlikely to be the main event. The more consequential questions are whether management:
The stock closed at $18.10 on July 22, up approximately 12.6% year to date and 31.8% over the past year, materially ahead of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund over both periods. That stronger setup raises the bar: a routine guidance reiteration may be sufficient operationally, but a favorable stock reaction likely requires incremental progress on wildfire reform, data centers or credit.
At $18.10, PCG trades at roughly 11.0 times the midpoint of 2026 core EPS guidance.
| Metric | Current guidepost |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP core EPS | $0.43 |
| Q2 2025 non-GAAP core EPS | $0.31 |
| FY2026 core EPS guidance | $1.64–$1.66 |
| Implied EPS remaining after Q1, at midpoint | $1.22 |
| 2027–2030 EPS growth target | 9%+ annually |
| 2026–2030 capital plan | $73 billion |
| 2026 planned capital expenditures | $12.4 billion |
| Weighted-average rate base | $75B in 2026; $106B in 2030 |
| Expected common-equity issuance through 2030 | None |
| Target dividend payout ratio | 20% by 2028 |
| Data centers in final engineering at Q1 | 4.6 GW |
| Data centers under construction at Q1 | 140 MW |
| Expected data-center load online by 2030 | Approximately 1.8 GW |
Management entered the quarter encouraged by the California Earthquake Authority’s April recommendations but made clear that the existing wildfire-liability framework is not a satisfactory long-term solution.
The company’s minimum desired outcome appears to be a framework that makes the extreme tail risk quantifiable and financeable. Potential elements include:
The California legislative session ends August 31, 2026, so this call comes near a critical stage of the process, although the legislature is currently in its scheduled summer recess.
What investors should listen for:
A constructive update would likely be more important than a few cents of quarterly EPS. Conversely, indications that action will be delayed into 2027 could renew concerns over PCG’s valuation discount and cost of capital.
A reaffirmation of $1.64–$1.66 is the base-case expectation after the strong first quarter. But investors should examine how PCG is getting there.
Q1’s $0.43 core EPS included:
Some of those benefits were regulatory or timing-related rather than recurring quarterly run-rate earnings. The highest-quality outcome would therefore be:
Management’s long-term model assumes 2%–4% annual non-fuel O&M reductions, even after inflation. Evidence that these savings are durable—and are not simply deferred work—would strengthen confidence in the 2027–2030 growth target.
PCG’s data-center pipeline is increasingly central to its affordability and growth argument. At the end of Q1:
PG&E estimates that each gigawatt of incremental data-center load could ultimately reduce electric bills by 1% or more, assuming the new customer appropriately funds the incremental power and infrastructure costs. The currently forecast 1.8 GW could provide a roughly 1%–2% rate benefit by 2030.
The key issue is now conversion, not headline applications. Final-engineering customers are paying for actual work, but PCG acknowledged that it has not previously managed this much volume at this stage.
Look for updates on:
A material increase in construction-stage projects would be a meaningful positive. Growth in early-stage applications alone would carry less weight.
PCG continues to target:
There was a constructive financing development during the quarter: PG&E expanded the utility revolving credit facility from $5.4 billion to $6.25 billion and extended its maturity to June 2031. The parent facility also added terms allowing collateral to be released if PCG receives senior unsecured investment-grade ratings from at least two agencies and satisfies other conditions.
That amendment reinforces how important investment grade is to the thesis. An upgrade could reduce borrowing costs, support customer affordability and make the $73 billion plan easier to finance without equity.
Questions for the call include:
PCG’s investment case depends on growing rate base while keeping customer bills politically acceptable. Management reported that since January 2024, bundled electric rates had fallen:
The company’s longer-term “simple, affordable model” targets customer bill growth of approximately 0%–3%, supported by O&M savings, load growth and lower financing costs.
Investors should watch for updates from the 2027 General Rate Case following the spring evidentiary hearings. A final decision is not expected until May 2027, but management may discuss:
Affordability is more than a customer-relations metric: it affects regulatory support for capital investment, wildfire spending and allowed returns.
PG&E has already faced conditions requiring potential or actual public-safety power shutoffs this summer. The important near-term operational questions are:
At Q1, PG&E had completed approximately 1,240 miles of undergrounding and planned to file its next 10-year undergrounding proposal during Q3. That filing is expected to request roughly 5,000 additional miles for 2028–2037, on top of the approximately 1,900 miles expected to be completed through 2027.
The filing’s timing, proposed cost per mile and projected customer savings will be important. Undergrounding is central to PCG’s safety case, but it must remain affordable and receive regulatory approval.
Diablo Canyon is less likely to drive this quarter’s earnings reaction after receiving a 20-year NRC license extension in April. Nevertheless, continued operation beyond 2030 still requires California legislative action. Management may discuss whether the affordability and reliability case is gaining political support.
Also worth monitoring:
As of March 31, estimated liabilities included $1.325 billion for Kincade, $2.15 billion for Dixie and $400 million for Mosquito. These are mostly balance-sheet and regulatory issues rather than core quarterly-earnings drivers, but adverse changes could affect cash flow or perceived tail risk.
| Scenario | What it could look like |
|---|---|
| Bullish | Guidance reaffirmed with clean underlying earnings; confidence in 2026 wildfire legislation rises; data-center projects move materially into construction; O&M savings and credit metrics improve; undergrounding filing remains on schedule. |
| Base case | Guidance and long-term targets reiterated; limited new legislative detail during recess; modest pipeline progress; no meaningful change to financing or capital plans. |
| Bearish | Guidance requires timing benefits or narrows lower; management signals weaker wildfire-reform prospects; data-center conversion slips; cost inflation or financing pressure challenges the no-equity plan; wildfire or PSPS metrics deteriorate. |
The most likely financial outcome is a reiteration of 2026 guidance and the 9%+ long-term EPS-growth target. PCG’s operational and rate-base growth story appears on track, and its expanded credit facility provides additional financing flexibility.
The decisive issue remains California wildfire policy. The stock has performed strongly into the report, suggesting investors already expect steady execution and at least some constructive legislative progress. Accordingly, the best upside catalyst would be evidence that wildfire tail risk is becoming more measurable without imposing an uneconomic shareholder contribution, accompanied by tangible conversion of data-center demand into construction-stage projects.
A merely in-line quarter should preserve the thesis. A durable wildfire solution would materially strengthen it.