Company | PG&E Corporation |
Ticker | PCG (NYSE) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 23, 2026 — Conference Call 11:00 AM ET |
Prepared | July 22, 2026 |
Sector / ETF Benchmark | Utilities / XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) |
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low-to-moderate bar for Q2 — the $0.363 core EPS estimate is well below Q1's $0.43 beat and reflects normal seasonal softness; revenue at ~$6.38B is the bigger swing factor given regulatory balancing account timing and load growth from data centers.
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (Q1 2026) | Prior Year Period (Q2 2025 Actual) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance (% delta) |
Non-GAAP Core EPS (Diluted - Operating) ($) | $0.43 | $0.31 | $0.363 | +17.1% YoY | $1.64–$1.66 (FY) | Q2 cons. implies ~22% of FY midpoint ($1.65); tracking in-line with seasonal cadence |
Total Revenue ($B) | $6.881B | $5.898B | $6.381B | +8.2% YoY | $26.42B (FY cons.) | Q2 cons. ~24.2% of FY; broadly in-line |
Operating & Maintenance — Operating ($B) | N/A — Q1 2026 actual not reported in VA for this line | $2.824B | $2.739B | -3.0% YoY (est.) | 2–4% non-fuel O&M reduction target (FY) | Consensus tracking within guidance range |
Capital Expenditures ($B) | $3.356B | $3.065B | $2.926B | -4.5% YoY (est.) | $12.43B (FY cons.) | FY cons. vs. $73B 5-yr plan (~$12.4B/yr avg.); in-line |
Ending Rate Base ($B) | $74.68B | $67.61B | $76.28B | +12.8% YoY | $77.95B (FY cons.) | 9% avg. annual growth target; tracking above |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $0.31 | $0.286 | +8.4% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $0.37 | $0.321 | +15.3% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $0.304 | $0.311 | -2.3% | Miss |
Q1 2025 | $0.33 | $0.352 | -6.3% | Miss |
Q2 2025 | $0.31 | $0.348 | -10.9% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $0.501 | $0.434 | +15.4% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $0.345 | $0.375 | -8.0% | Miss |
Q1 2026 | $0.43 | $0.396 | +8.6% | Beat |
Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call — management reaffirmed the full-year 2026 core EPS range of $1.64–$1.66 and all five-year plan parameters; the only post-earnings development was a credit facility expansion in June, which is a positive liquidity signal but not a guidance change.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 23, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY2026 Non-GAAP Core EPS | $1.64–$1.66 (midpoint $1.65) | — Unchanged | $1.628 (VA consensus) | Reaffirmed on Q1 call; implies ~10% growth at midpoint; 5th consecutive year of double-digit core EPS growth |
EPS Growth 2027–2030 | ≥9% annually | — Unchanged | N/A (multi-year) | Reaffirmed on Q1 call; unchanged from prior calls |
5-Year Capital Plan (through 2030) | $73 billion | — Unchanged | $12.43B FY2026 (VA cons.) | No change to plan; management noted preference to make plan “better” (rate-reducing) not “bigger” |
Non-Fuel O&M Reduction Target | 2–4% annual reduction | — Unchanged | $2.739B Q2 cons. (VA) | Continuous monitoring and LiDAR savings ($24M in 2026 alone) support target; 3 consecutive years of beating 2% floor |
FFO/Debt Target | Mid-teens (%) | — Unchanged | N/A | Moody's revised outlook to Positive post-Q4 2025; Fitch investment grade upgrade a potential catalyst |
Equity Issuance | No new common equity through 2030 | — Unchanged | N/A | Reaffirmed; credit facility expanded to $6.25B on Jun 22, 2026 (positive liquidity signal) |
Dividend Payout Ratio | Ramp to 20% by 2028, maintain through 2030 | — Unchanged | N/A | Unchanged; no dividend declared yet for 2026 |
Data Center Pipeline (Final Engineering) | 4.6 GW in final engineering; ~1.8 GW online by 2030 | — Unchanged (watch for update) | N/A | Third cluster study showed >10 GW of new interest; Q2 call may provide update on projects clearing rate-reducing threshold |
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 core EPS have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (from $0.373 to $0.363, -2.7%), while FY2026 consensus of $1.628 sits just below the guidance midpoint of $1.65 — a small but persistent gap that reflects the Street’s conservatism on wildfire-related non-core items and regulatory timing, not a fundamental divergence from guidance.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (Apr 30, 2026) | Current Consensus (Jul 22, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Non-GAAP Core EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.373 | $0.363 | -2.7% | N/A (no quarterly guidance) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Non-GAAP Core EPS — FY2026 | $1.615 | $1.628 | +0.8% | $1.64–$1.66 (mid: $1.65) | $1.64–$1.66 (unchanged) | Unchanged | -1.3% below midpoint |
Total Revenue — Q2 2026 | $6.502B | $6.381B | -1.9% | N/A (no quarterly guidance) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Total Revenue — FY2026 | $26.52B | $26.42B | -0.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ending Rate Base — Q2 2026 | $76.60B | $76.28B | -0.4% | 9% avg. annual growth | Unchanged | Unchanged | Tracking above 9% YoY target |
CapEx — FY2026 | $12.45B | $12.43B | -0.2% | $73B 5-yr plan (~$12.4B/yr) | Unchanged | Unchanged | In-line with plan |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-earnings baseline uses consensus as of April 30, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the April 23, 2026 Q1 earnings release). The modest -2.7% drift lower in Q2 EPS estimates is not alarming — it reflects normal seasonal conservatism and the Street’s tendency to wait for wildfire-season clarity before revising higher. FY2026 consensus has actually ticked up +0.8% since the Q1 print, consistent with the beat-and-raise cadence management has established.
Key Takeaway: PCG has outperformed XLU by ~8 percentage points since the Q1 2026 earnings date (Apr 23), with the gain driven primarily by multiple expansion (NTM P/E +5.2% over 3 months, EV/EBITDA +11.6%) rather than estimate revisions — suggesting the market is re-rating the credit trajectory and wildfire liability risk premium, not just pricing in higher earnings.
Metric | PCG | XLU (Sector ETF) | SPY (S&P 500) |
Price at Last Earnings (Apr 22, 2026 close) | $16.88 | $44.87 | $711.21 |
Price (Jul 21, 2026 close) | $17.49 | $44.92 | $748.28 |
Return Since Last Earnings | +3.6% | +0.1% | +5.2% |
1-Month Return | +8.8% | N/A | N/A |
3-Month Return | +6.6% | N/A | N/A |
12-Month Return | +35.3% | N/A | N/A |
NTM P/E (current) | 10.2x | N/A | N/A |
NTM EV/EBITDA (current) | 8.6x | N/A | N/A |
NTM EV/EBITDA (3 months ago) | 7.7x | N/A | N/A |
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Stock Performance Decomposition Data. Note: Jul 23, 2026 close of $18.11 reflects the day of earnings release and is not included in the pre-earnings performance calculation above.
Performance narrative: PCG's 3-month gain of +6.6% has been almost entirely multiple-driven — EV/EBITDA expanded from 7.7x to 8.6x (+11.6%) while estimate revisions were essentially flat. This is consistent with the market re-rating the wildfire liability risk premium following Moody's positive outlook revision and the Diablo Canyon NRC license extension. The stock's 12-month return of +35.3% reflects a sustained re-rating from deep discount to a still-below-peer multiple, with P/Book expanding from 0.87x to 1.05x. The stock remains cheap relative to regulated utility peers on most metrics, suggesting further multiple expansion is possible if SB 254 Phase 2 delivers a legislative solution before the August session ends. Key events since Q1 earnings: (1) June 22 credit facility expansion to $6.25B (positive); (2) July 15 PSPS warning for 10 counties (neutral to slight negative — operational but expected); (3) ongoing California wildfire legislative session (binary catalyst).
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the June 22 credit facility expansion to $6.25B — a direct signal of lender confidence in PCG’s credit trajectory and a precursor to the investment-grade upgrade that would be the single largest re-rating catalyst for the stock.
Key Takeaway: Peer disclosures since May 23, 2026 are broadly constructive for PCG — Duke’s rate settlement at 9.8% ROE signals a cooperative regulatory environment, Sempra’s California GRC filings confirm the CPUC process is active and supportive of cost recovery, and the PJM capacity auction at near-record prices validates the data center power demand thesis that underpins PCG’s load growth pipeline.
Note: Only disclosures from May 23 – July 22, 2026 that address Q2 2026 or forward outlook are included below. Retrospective prior-quarter commentary has been excluded.
Read-through relevance: Moderate-to-High. Duke Energy Carolinas reached a comprehensive rate settlement with North Carolina regulators on July 17, 2026, agreeing to a 9.8% ROE on a 53% equity capital structure and a retail rate base of ~$25.7B plus $3.8B of MYRP capital. The settlement also includes a potential delay of the next rate case until no earlier than November 2028, contingent on deferral of costs for new generating assets. One-time pre-tax charges of ~$40M will be recognized in 2026 as special items.
PCG read-through: Duke’s ability to settle at 9.8% ROE — above the current CPUC-authorized ROE for PCG — is a constructive data point for PCG’s ongoing General Rate Case (GRC) evidentiary hearings. The settlement framework (multi-year rate plan with annual refund mechanism, deferral of next rate case) mirrors the type of regulatory compact PCG is seeking in California. The $3.8B of MYRP capital allocation also validates the utility sector’s ability to secure regulatory support for large infrastructure programs. Separately, Duke’s earlier partial settlement (July 2, 2026) and the subsequent comprehensive settlement (July 17) demonstrate that regulators are willing to negotiate constructively even on large rate increases — Duke originally sought ~18% and settled at ~9.5%.
Read-through relevance: High. Sempra’s California utility subsidiaries SDG&E and SoCalGas filed their 2028 General Rate Case applications with the CPUC on June 15, 2026, requesting combined revenue requirement increases of $3.76B (SDG&E) and $5.10B (SoCalGas) for the 2028 test year, with attrition adjustments of 5.5–8.7% annually through 2031. The filings explicitly cite rising insurance costs, employee healthcare, and the cost of meeting California’s clean energy demand as drivers.
PCG read-through: This is the most direct California regulatory read-through for PCG. The scale of Sempra’s GRC requests — and the CPUC’s willingness to process them — signals that the California regulatory framework remains supportive of cost recovery for large capital programs. The explicit acknowledgment of wildfire fund recovery risk (“liability for damages regardless of fault”) in Sempra’s forward-looking statements is a reminder that SB 254 Phase 2 is a sector-wide issue, not just a PCG-specific one. The requested 10.25% ROE (Ameren Missouri, a different jurisdiction, but directionally relevant) and Sempra’s multi-year attrition mechanism both support the view that regulators are accommodating utility cost structures. Watch for any CPUC commentary on the Sempra GRC timeline as a leading indicator for PCG’s own GRC proceedings.
Read-through relevance: Moderate. Ameren Missouri filed a request with the Missouri PSC on June 26, 2026 for a $343M increase in annual electric revenues based on a 10.25% ROE, 52% equity capital structure, and a $16.7B rate base. The proceeding is expected to span up to 11 months, with a decision by May 2027 and new rates effective June 2027.
PCG read-through: Ameren’s 10.25% ROE request — in a Midwestern jurisdiction — provides a benchmark for what utilities are seeking in the current rate environment. For PCG, which operates under a CPUC-authorized ROE that is currently lower and subject to the ongoing cost of capital proceeding, Ameren’s filing reinforces the sector-wide push for higher authorized returns to reflect elevated interest rates and capital costs. The rate base of $16.7B and the inclusion of 400 MW of new generation resources also mirrors PCG’s own capital-intensive investment program. The 11-month proceeding timeline is consistent with California’s GRC cadence.
Read-through relevance: Moderate-to-High (indirect). PJM’s annual capacity auction cleared at approximately $325/MW-day — near the maximum allowed under a temporary price cap — for the 2028–2029 delivery year. Prices have risen more than 1,000% since 2024 due to data center demand outstripping supply. PJM fell short of its reliability requirement for the second consecutive auction. Constellation Energy (CEG) cleared 18,875 MW and Vistra (VST) cleared 10.9 GW at these prices.
PCG read-through: While PCG operates in CAISO (not PJM), the PJM auction results are the clearest market signal of the structural power demand imbalance driven by data centers — the same demand that is filling PCG’s 4.6 GW final engineering pipeline. The near-record capacity prices validate PCG management’s thesis that data center load growth is durable and that utilities with available interconnection capacity (like PCG in Silicon Valley and the Central Valley) are in a structurally advantaged position. The supply shortfall in PJM also underscores the urgency of the White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge and the broader policy push to accelerate grid investment.
Read-through relevance: Moderate (indirect). GE Vernova reported Q2 2026 results on July 22, 2026 with organic orders up 88% to $24.2B and raised full-year revenue guidance to $45.5–$46.5B (from $44.5–$45.5B). Power and Electrification segments drove the order surge. The company also raised full-year cash flow guidance to $11.5–$12.5B (from $6.5–$7.5B). Despite the strong orders, the stock fell ~6% on an EBITDA miss ($1.25B vs. $1.29B expected).
PCG read-through: GEV’s blowout orders are a direct read-through for the power infrastructure buildout that PCG is enabling in its service territory. The 88% organic order growth in power equipment confirms that data center developers are committing capital at an accelerating pace — consistent with PCG’s third cluster study showing >10 GW of new interest. However, GEV’s commentary on equipment lead times and supply chain constraints (transformers, circuit breakers) is a watch item for PCG’s capital plan execution. The stock’s negative reaction to an EBITDA miss despite strong orders is a reminder that execution on margins matters as much as demand signals — a lesson applicable to PCG’s own O&M discipline narrative.
Read-through relevance: Moderate. The White House organized a voluntary pledge for utilities and data center developers to ensure AI-driven power demand does not raise household bills. NextEra, Duke, Equinix, and Digital Realty were among nearly 200 entities signing on. The pledge commits signatories to finance electricity infrastructure for their AI projects and help pay for new power generation and grid upgrades.
PCG read-through: This is directly aligned with PCG’s “rate-reducing load” framework, which requires data center developers to demonstrate that their projects will reduce rates for existing customers before PCG will commit interconnection capacity. The White House pledge effectively endorses this approach at the federal level, reducing the political risk that California regulators could block PCG’s data center strategy on affordability grounds. PCG has not yet publicly signed the pledge — watch for any commentary on this on the Q2 call.
Key Takeaway: All insider activity since the Q1 earnings date consists of sales, but the pattern is not alarming — the CEO’s sale is under a pre-established 10b5-1 plan, and the EVP Strategy sale (the only discretionary transaction) is modest in context. No open-market buys have been filed, which is a neutral signal given the stock’s strong 12-month run.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Date | Note |
Jason M. Glickman | EVP, Strategy and Growth | Open Market Sale | 47,264 shares | Apr 28, 2026 | Discretionary sale (no 10b5-1 plan indicated); sold 5 days post-Q1 earnings; retained 136,433 shares |
Patricia K. Poppe | Chief Executive Officer, Director | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 31,250 shares | Apr 28, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale via Revocable Living Trust; CEO retains 2,273,268 shares — very large remaining position; not a concern |
Kerry Whorton Cooper | Director | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,250 shares | Jun 2, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; small in size ($22,500 estimated value per Form 144); routine |
Carla J. Peterman | President, EVP Customer & Corporate Affairs | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 31,786 shares | Jun 15, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; retains 163,305 shares; routine planned disposition |
Marlene Santos | N/A (Form 144 filer) | Form 144 — Intended Sale | ~$2.85M value | Jul 22, 2026 | Form 144 notice of intended sale filed day before earnings; size is notable but Form 144 is a pre-sale notice, not a completed transaction |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database; SEC Form 144 Filings. The only discretionary (non-10b5-1) sale is Glickman’s 47,264-share sale on April 28, 2026 — five days after the Q1 beat. This is worth monitoring but is not a red flag given the stock’s strong run and the fact that he retained 136,433 shares. The CEO’s 10b5-1 sale is routine and her 2.27M share retained position signals strong alignment. The Marlene Santos Form 144 filed on July 22 (day before earnings) is a notice of intended sale, not a completed transaction — the $2.85M size is notable and should be tracked for the corresponding Form 4 filing.