{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS (Q2'26, ex-significant variances)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.36 vs. cons ~$2.32",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total managed AUM (6/30/26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$808B vs. cons ~$800B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Specialty Benefits loss ratio (SBD, Q2 seasonal dental peak)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~61% vs. cons ~60%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 operating EPS growth target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9-12% reaffirmed vs. cons ~7-8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 ROE target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~15-17% reaffirmed vs. cons ~16% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 total capital deployment / buybacks (Chile proceeds)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.5-1.8B vs. cons ~$1.4-1.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Variable investment income / real estate transaction cadence",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 2H VII pickup, FY ~$450M+ vs. cons ~$400M (FY2026 vs 2025)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "RIS pretax operating margin",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide upper end ~41% vs. cons ~40% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Life Insurance margin (mortality normalization)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide low end ~12% vs. cons ~14% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest clean beat driven by the pre-announced AUM/market tailwind gets a small day-1 pop, but the stock sits near 52-week highs (+22% YTD) with an elevated bar and ~6% de-risking already done. Out-period math pulls estimates back: management flags Q1 as seasonally strongest for RIS flows, sequential give-backs in Life mortality and IP run-rate (mid-$70Ms), higher dental loss ratio in Q2, and a light Q2 PRT pipeline. Even with reaffirmed FY targets, the quality/sustainability skew keeps out-quarter revisions flattish-to-down, so the initial gain fades toward flat.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}