{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Non-GAAP Operating EPS (ex. significant variances)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.38 vs. cons $2.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Specialty Benefits (Dental) Loss Ratio, Q2",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~59.5% vs. cons ~61.0% (lower/favorable loss ratio)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment Management non-affiliated net cash flow, Q2",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-$5.0B vs. cons ~-$2.0B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Non-GAAP Operating EPS growth guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~9-12% (~$9.02-$9.26 EPS) vs. cons $9.37 (+13.3%) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Non-GAAP ROE guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~15-17% vs. cons ~16.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "International Pension segment earnings run-rate",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$75M vs. cons ~$65M quarterly run-rate (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "PRT (pension risk transfer) second-half pipeline commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.0-4.0B H2 sales pickup vs. cons ~$2.0B (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.7,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An EPS/margin beat plus favorable Specialty Benefits loss ratio should drive an initial pop, but reaffirmed (not raised) FY26 guidance of 9-12% EPS growth sits below the Street's embedded 13.3% full-year build, implying analysts must trim out-quarter estimates even after a Q2 beat. Combine that with unresolved net-flow softness in Investment Management, a still-light first-half PRT pipeline, and a stock already trading above several fair-value estimates (~$101.50 vs ~$107-109) after a 37%+ 12-month run, and the setup favors post-print mean reversion/fade over the following days as the initial reaction is unwound.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}