Report date: Monday, July 27, 2026 (after market close) | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
| Consensus EPS (non-GAAP operating) | ~$2.32–$2.34, up ~7–8% y/y from $2.16 |
| Consensus revenue | ~$4.11 billion (+11.4% y/y) |
| FY2026 consensus EPS | ~$9.37 (+13.3% y/y vs. $8.27 in FY25) |
| Q2 AUM (pre-announced) | $808.0 billion |
| Stock, 52-week return | +37.7% (vs. S&P 500 +20.2%) |
| Recent price action | Pulled back from a mid-July high near $114 to ~$107-109 |
Ahead of the event, analysts tracking the company expect its profit to be around $2.34 per share on a diluted basis, up 8.3% from an EPS of $2.16 in the year-ago quarter. For the full year, analysts expect the company to report an EPS of $9.37, up 13.3% from $8.27 in fiscal 2025. A separate Zacks-sourced estimate has the bar slightly lower: the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PFG's second-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.11 billion, indicating an increase of 11.4% from the year-ago reported figure, with the consensus estimate for earnings pegged at $2.32 per share. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PFG's second-quarter earnings has moved down 0.8% in the past 30 days, a modest negative revision heading into the print. PFG's beat record is mixed rather than spotless: the company has a mixed history of earnings surprises, surpassing Wall Street's EPS estimates in two of four quarterly reports and missing on two other occasions.
Q1 2026 (reported April 24) set a high bar. Non-GAAP operating EPS excluding significant variances was $2.17, up 13% year-over-year and above the high end of the company's target range, driven by favorable underwriting/mortality in Benefits and Protection plus solid fee-based momentum. Segment highlights included record RIS transfer deposits ($12B, +35% y/y), record Investment Management gross sales ($37B, +21% y/y), record International Pension AUM ($160B, +20% y/y), and a Specialty Benefits loss ratio (58.5%) that came in favorably versus target. Management returned $374 million to shareholders (including $200M of buybacks) and raised the dividend for the 12th consecutive quarter.
Management flagged several items that matter for how Q2 should be read: - Specialty Benefits seasonality: leadership explicitly guided that "second quarter does tend to be the seasonally highest for Dental," meaning the SBD loss ratio should rise sequentially even as full-year loss ratios are expected to land at or below the low end of the guided range. - PRT/pension risk transfer: Q1 PRT sales and pipeline were described as "light," a pattern management said mirrors 2025's shape (weak first half, more activity in the back half). - Asset management flows: record gross sales are being offset by elevated redemptions concentrated in a small number of active U.S. equity mutual funds in the wealth channel; management expects the non-affiliated net flow profile to "improve for the balance of the year" as this normalizes. - International Pension run-rate: Q1 earnings included a one-off ~$7 million performance fee tied to China Construction Bank; management guided to a more sustainable mid-$70s million run rate (versus mid-$60s previously), aided by FX tailwinds. - Variable investment income / real estate: Q1 saw no real estate transaction activity in the alternatives portfolio; management expects a pickup in transaction activity in Q2-Q4 and continues to expect full-year VII to improve versus 2025. - Private credit scrutiny: with industry-wide attention on insurers' private credit exposure, CFO Joel Pitz reiterated that the vast majority of PFG's private fixed income is investment grade with minimal direct lending exposure, and that portfolio experience remains better than long-term expectations.
Ahead of earnings, PFG's July 20 8-K disclosed that total company AUM climbed to $808.0 billion as of June 30, 2026 — up from $770.2 billion at Q1-end — with $601.9 billion managed by Investment Management and $168.5 billion by International Pension. The filing noted that foreign currency translation, market performance, and other non-cash-flow items contributed an approximate 6.4% positive impact as a percentage of beginning-period AUM, meaning much of the sequential AUM growth is being driven by markets/FX rather than organic net inflows — a distinction worth watching when the actual net cash flow figure is disclosed alongside earnings. The filing also flagged sensitivity to small/mid-cap and international equity exposure, high-yield/preferred fixed income, and emerging-market currency movements — relevant given the choppier market backdrop and PFG's own commentary on its private markets/EM debt books.
At the Q4 2025 print, management issued 2026 guidance of: - 9–12% annual non-GAAP operating EPS growth - 15–17% non-GAAP ROE - 75–85% free capital flow conversion - $1.5–$1.8 billion of capital deployment ($0.8–1.1B buybacks, plus a ~40% dividend payout ratio)
Q1's 13% EPS growth (ex-significant variances) and 16.1% ROE were tracking comfortably inside/above these ranges, and management reiterated confidence in hitting the full-year targets. A Q2 print in the high-single to low-double-digit EPS growth range (as consensus implies) would keep PFG on pace, though it would represent a deceleration in growth rate versus Q1's pace — worth probing on the call for whether that reflects tougher comps, normalizing significant variances, or genuine business deceleration.
PFG ended Q1 with $1.45 billion of excess and available capital and an estimated ~400% RBC ratio, comfortably above its 375% target. The company has been consistently returning capital — $1.5 billion+ in 2025 including $850 million of buybacks — and raised its dividend for a 12th straight quarter to $0.82/share (an 8% y/y increase). Watch for confirmation of continued buyback pace and any dividend action, along with capital deployment context (M&A optionality — PFG did a small tuck-in Dental network acquisition in Q1 — versus buybacks).
Shares of the financial services company have gained 37.7% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 20.2% returns, and PFG has outperformed many of its own financial-sector peers too. That said, the stock has cooled into the print: one valuation-focused piece noted PFG easing to around $107, down 5.1% over the past week and 4.5% over the past month, though its 90 day share price return of 8% and 1 year total shareholder return of 38.5% still point to stronger momentum over a longer window. On valuation, analyst targets imply Principal Financial Group is modestly overvalued around $107.32 versus a $101.50 fair value by one model, though DCF-based approaches diverge meaningfully — a reminder that sell-side price targets are mixed on how much further re-rating the stock can sustain after its 2026 run.
PFG heads into Q2 earnings with strong underlying momentum — record sales/deposits across RIS, Investment Management, and Specialty Benefits, expanding margins, a robust capital position, and a stock that has meaningfully outperformed peers and the broader market over the past year. Expectations have been set for high-single-digit to low-double-digit EPS growth and low-double-digit revenue growth, with AUM already confirmed at a record $808 billion. The main swing factors investors should focus on are the composition of that AUM growth (flows vs. markets/FX), whether asset-management redemption pressure is fading as guided, seasonal Dental loss-ratio dynamics, and any incremental color on private credit exposure given heightened sector-wide investor sensitivity to that theme.